478 FRANK A. VANDERLIP 



posits in that time have trebled, marking an increase of from 

 about $660,000,000 to $1,900,000,000. 



A careful estimate of the total bank deposits in the United 

 States to-day — national, state, savings banks and trust compa- 

 nies—brings them up to a grand total of $10,000,000,000, and 

 that compares with a total ten years ago of $4,600,000,000. 

 The increase has been well over double. Will it double again, 

 and will we have $20,000,000,000 deposits in 1914? If we only 

 make the same actual gain, we will have over $15,000,000,000; 

 and barring any unexpected interference with our expansion, 

 I believe that that is a conservative figure and inside the 

 probabilities. 



In ten years we have seen railroad gross earnings increase 

 from $1,200,000,000 to $1,900,000,000. With only an equal 

 actual increase, we will have railroad earnings of $2,600,000,- 

 000 ten years from now; while, if the percentage of increase of 

 the last decade were to be maintained, the figures would reach 

 $3,000,000,000. The lower total is the fairer presumption. 

 With gross earnings reaching such a figure, with constantly 

 improving methods of administration, and with more perfect 

 roadbeds and equipment, we may expect to see steadily in- 

 creasing economy of operation. Is it not fair to presume, 

 then, that these vast gross earnings, coupled with a decreasing 

 ratio of expenses, will most certainly provide for an increasing- 

 ly satisfactory return upon railroad investments? 



I will not weary you with too many statistics. If you are 

 interested in pursuing such a line of inquiry, get the monthly 

 summary of the bureau of statistics from Washington. You 

 will see from the figures which you will find there, for instance, 

 that our foreign trade, which ten years ago footed $1,500- 

 000,000, was this year $2,450,000,000. Our exports of agri- 

 cultural products may not increase much from present figures, 

 but it is safe to say that our increasing command of foreign 

 markets for our manufactures will perhaps bring the total 

 of our foreign trade to $3,000,000,000 in the next decade. You 

 will see that national bank loans and discounts, which were 

 under $2,000,000,000 ten years ago, are now $3,725,000,000. 

 A similar increase would carry us above $4,500,000,000 in 

 national bank loans ten years hence. Let us hope those loans 



