214 WALTER F. WILCOX 



population, but to a replacement of native by foreign stock. 

 That if the foreigners had not come, the native element would 

 long have filled the places the foreigners usurped, I entertain 

 not a doubt." 



Whether the evidence warrants the opinion that the de- 

 crease in the birth rate is due mainly to immigration of alien 

 stock must be left to the student to decide. But one may men- 

 tion that the recent decline of the birth rate in Australia has 

 given rise to grave anxiety and led to the appointment in New 

 South Wales of a governmental commission for its investiga- 

 tion. No torrent of alien immigrants has been flooding Aus- 

 tralia, and yet the decline of the birth rate has probably been 

 as rapid there as among native American stock. 



It may be in place to introduce here for comparison with 

 the opinion and the argument of General Walker the weighty 

 words of Dr. John Shaw Billings. Toward the close of the 

 article already cited, after he had developed conclusions in 

 substantial agreement with those reached by a different meth- 

 od m the preceding analysis, he advanced from a purely statis- 

 tical discussion to consider the causes of this decline in the 

 American birth rate. 



'^Does this diminution in birth rates indicate a progressive 

 diminution in fertility, in the power of either or both sexes to 

 produce children? There is no good reason for thinking so. 

 It is true that it has been suggested that alcohol, tobacco, and 

 S3^hilis are producing a deterioration of races which is in part 

 responsible for the change, but of this there is no evidence. 

 So far as we have data with regard to the use of intoxicating 

 liquors, the fertility seems to be greatest in those countries and 

 among those classes where they are most freely used. 



''Is the lessening birth rate due to changes in the mode of 

 life of the people, such as the progressive increase of migration 

 from the rural districts to the cities, the increase of wealth and 

 luxury, the so-called emancipation of vfomen, etc.? 



''No doubt these things have some influence, by dimin- 

 ishing the proportion of marriage at comparatively early ages, 

 and by favormg an increase in divorce and in prostitution, but 

 it is probable that the most important factor in the change is 

 the deliberate and voluntary avoidance or prevention of child 



