428 The Assassination of Sarajevo \ l 9 l A 



At last we come to the first premonitory thunderclap of the European 

 storm. 



" 30^/j June. — There has been another assassination, this time of the 

 heir of the Austrian Emperor. I do not quite know how it affects the 

 political situation. 



" 20U1 July. — The ' Times ' to-day announces that the King has in- 

 vited eight leading politicians to a conference on Ireland — Asquith, 

 Lloyd George, Lansdowne, Bonar Law, Redmond, Dillon, Carson, and 

 Craig. This is a quite new departure, a move probably of the King 

 in conjunction with the Whig section of the Cabinet — Grey, Haldane, 

 and Winston — and agreed to by Asquith. I do not expect any great 

 result from it one way or other, as neither the Nationalists nor the 

 Ulster people are prepared to give in. 



" 22nd July. — Margaret Sackville came down unexpectedly, bring- 

 ing with her Ramsay Macdonald, leader of the Labour Party in Parlia- 

 ment, who had expressed a wish to make my acquaintance. I found 

 him intelligent and reasonable, with many ideas in common with mine, 

 especially on India, which he has just been perambulating as member 

 of the Commission of Inquiry into the Civil Service, ?nd sufficiently 

 anti-Imperialist. He is a man of forty-five or fifty, and talks with a 

 slight Scotch accent. He told us some amusing stories of his Indian 

 tour. I had a thorough talk with him about the situation in Ireland, 

 and gave him as my advice to have nothing to do with the attempt to 

 compromise on the Ulster question — ' Let the Ulstermen do their 

 damnedest and get the Government to arm the National Volunteers.' 

 He said he believed that if the Conference at the Palace broke down, 

 which it probably will, the Government would enrol the Volunteers as 

 a Government force, and arm them and use them to keep order if the 

 Ulstermen broke it. He told me he had been approached about having 

 an invitation as Leader of the Labour Party to the Conference, but 

 had not encouraged the idea. He does not think the King will refuse 

 his consent to the Home Rule Bill if the Amendment Bill is thrown out. 

 If there is a dissolution in October the Liberals will fail to get a 

 majority. He has no high opinion of Grey's intelligence, but considers 

 him sure of Asquith's succession, as he has a great hold over Liberals 

 in the House of Commons. If Grey were to leave the Government on 

 the Ulster question, the Liberal party would be split in two, while it 

 would not matter if Winston resigned; Grey was indispensable. Of 

 Lloyd George he has a mean opinion, a very high one of Dillon. I 

 asked him whether if the democracy really got into power in England 

 the Labour party and the Socialists would continue to be anti-Imperial- 

 ist. He said : ' I think they would, but I understand your doubt.' 



" 24th July. — The Conference at Buckingham Palace has failed. 



