I9 X 4] War Begun on the Danube 429 



A much more important matter is an ultimatum addressed by the 

 Austrian Government to Servia, which may very likely lead to real war 

 between Austria and Russia. 



"26th July (Sunday). — The quarrel between Austria and Servia 

 seems certain now to result in war, and war with Russia. Belloc 

 dined with us. He says Germany is afraid of war, but I am inclined to 

 think it is pushing it on, the occasion being a convenient one, especially 

 in view of our Irish difficulties. 



" 27th July. — To-day's papers are sensational. War seems to have 

 begun on the Danube, and there has been rioting in Dublin, with firing 

 on the mob and a bayonet charge, with two or three people killed and 

 many wounded. This will bring things to a head and oblige Asquith 

 to allow the arming of the National Volunteers if he does not throw up 

 his cards and resign. This is an astonishing show of weakness and 

 mismanagement. I see the Labour members are threatening a revolt 

 from Asquith and a hundred Liberals as well if he does not withdraw 

 the Amendment Bill and keep the Army in order. 



" 28th July. — The riot in Dublin has, I think, improved Llome Rule 

 prospects, showing that there is at least as much danger of trouble in 

 disappointing the National hopes as in displeasing the Ulstermen. 



" As to the larger matter of war abroad Grey has come forward amid 

 a flourish of trumpets in the press to offer his little remedy of a con- 

 ference of Ambassadors in London. But it is not likely to be more 

 effective than his interventions of a year and two years ago. It will 

 only make our diplomacy still more ridiculous. Belloc, however, thinks 

 Germany is afraid of fighting, being unprepared for war. My view 

 is that it is Russia that is unprepared, and that the fatal year 191 3 hav- 

 ing passed by, Kaiser Wilhelm thinks he may try his luck at last, and 

 means to stand his ground with Austria against the Franco-Russian 

 Entente, England being practically negligible just now." 



[This allusion to the fatal year 1913 refers to the prediction made 

 in 1871 to Kaiser Wilhelm's grandfather, Wilhelm, the first Emperor, 

 that in 1913 would see the downfall of the Llohenzollerns. It was 

 made to him by a gipsy, but, unlike such gipsy predictions, was based 

 upon the mathematical calculation in which the letters of the Emperor's 

 name were represented by figures which worked out very exactly at 

 1913. I remember hearing several years before the war that Kaiser 

 Wilhelm was so deeply impressed by it that he would not dare fight 

 with France till the date was over.] 



" 29th July. — It is announced that Austria has declared formal 

 war on Servia; the question is now whether Russia will join in. There 

 is every probability she will, as it is a question of predominance in the 

 Balkans between the two Empires and the two religions, Catholic and 

 Orthodox, and this will bring in Germany, and Germany will bring 



