430 War or No War? [1914 



in France. There is wild excitement in London, and people are be- 

 ginning to talk of England's fulfilling her promises to France, but I 

 do not believe in this, or in there being any definite promises. It 

 would be too stupid even for Grey. 



" 30^ July. — The crisis is worse than ever, with panic on all the 

 Stock Exchanges of Europe and our own. Advantage is being taken 

 of it to defer any settlement of the Irish question on the ground that 

 all parties are of one patriotic mind, Irish as well as English, towards 

 events abroad. This is of course absurd, but so long as the King puts 

 his signature to the Home Rule Bill, the rest will not matter. The 

 first shots have been fired in Servia. 



"31st July. — The ' Times ' to-day has a special article in largest print 

 recommending England to go to war in aid of France against Germany, 

 but I do not believe in any such folly. Belgrade has been bombarded, 

 and it is all but certain now there will be general European war, but 

 not for us. Belloc and I differ in this. He is convinced that France 

 is stronger than Germany. I am not. He talks of Germany as 

 calling out to our Foreign Office to mediate. I believe Germany means 

 war, and is rejecting Grey's foolish intervention. 



" 1st Aug. — There is a general panic, the London Stock Exchange 

 closed, and the Bank rate raised to 8 per cent. Germany has sent ulti- 

 matums both to Russia and to France; general war is certain, but 

 the ' Times ' has a letter from Norman Angell in large print to-day con- 

 tradictory of its yesterday's article. The ' Nation ' and all the Liberal 

 papers denounce the idea of war, and I cannot believe we shall be 

 such fools as to take part in it if we are not attacked. Italy is pro- 

 claiming neutrality; we shall do the same. 



"2nd Aug. (Sunday). — Belloc dined with us again to-night, and 

 we had another great argument, whether to join in the war or not. 

 Belloc is for it, I against. He looks upon Prussia as a ' nation of 

 atheists,' who, if they beat the French, will destroy Christianity, 

 whereas if the French beat them, ' Prussia would be hamstrung.' 

 Russia, he thinks, will never be a danger to Western Europe. If we 

 do not side with France now we shall be left without a friend. Eng- 

 land will cease to be a great Power. My view is a very simple one. 

 It seems to me that having no army of any value it would be ridiculous 

 to fight, and would only hasten our discomfiture. Between France and 

 Germany one seems to me as atheistical as the other, and Russia worse 

 than either. England is in no condition to fight any but a naval war, 

 and France does not need us at sea. Grey might have stopped all 

 the trouble three years ago by forbidding Italy its raid on Tripoli. It 

 would have been a cheap display of strength. He will hardly be fool 

 enough now to send a twopenny-halfpenny Army Corps to the Conti- 

 nent where he can effect nothing. No. Asquith will announce neu- 



