FOREIGN MARKETS 143 



cent of the American crop. The crop conditions this year promise 

 to be about the same as last year. 



The situation is, therefore, a bad one on the whole, a rapidly 

 growing demand not being met by an equally growing supply. The 

 Brazilian output has been greatly stimulated in the past few years, 

 and, unless the American conditions improve, will become a very 

 important factor. So far as the demand can be foreseen, it will 

 continue to grow. The opening of China will largely affect the 

 problem in the future. 



PART III i 



The Political Situation as affecting Foreign Markets 



We have passed in review the recent changes in the theory of 

 foreign markets and the more important of the concrete changes in 

 the condition of the markets themselves. It remains to review the 

 political situation, always more or less fraught with meaning for 

 the world's trade so long as " national economics " rule. Space will 

 permit of only a brief glance at two of the most important phases 

 of the present situation; first, the agitation for protection in Eng- 

 land; and second, the necessity for tariff reform in the United States. 

 In this we shall necessarily take the American point of view. 



SECTION 1 

 Mr. Chamberlain's Fiscal Policy 



After half a century of free trade in England, a strong party is now 

 considering the advisability of resorting to protection. Although 

 it certainly cannot be said that the proposals put forward by Mr. 

 Chamberlain are " viewed with dismay " in the United States, yet 

 it is true that they are matters of serious concern. In industrial 

 circles the feeling seems to be that we shall be able, when the time 

 comes, to adjust our trade to the new conditions; but we are much 

 concerned to know the direction in which the adjustment will be 

 necessary and the time when it will come. It is, at present, ex- 

 tremely difficult to anticipate what is likely to be done. Not only 

 is there the problem of anticipating how far the programme is likely 

 to meet with the support of the people, but the leaders themselves 

 present a somewhat shifting programme. With true English con- 

 servatism, Mr. Chamberlain has been careful to disclaim any sympathy 

 with protectionists, and the leaders, to quote Mr. Balfour, " approach 

 the issue from a free-trade standpoint; " and yet, starting from that 

 standpoint, they seem to be proceeding with some rapidity in the 

 direction of protection, judging from the more recent of Mr. Cham- 



