P xr ‘PHENOMENA OF ORGANIC NATURE 371 
_s 
outside and on the window-sill, opened the window, 
got into the room, and stole your tea-pot and 
spoons. You have now arrived at a vera causa ; 
—you have assumed a cause which, it is plain, is 
competent to produce all the phenomena you have 
observed. You can explain all these phenomena 
only by the hypothesis of a thief. But that is a 
hypothetical conclusion, of the justice of which 
you have no absolute proof at all; it is only 
rendered highly probable by a series of inductive 
_ and deductive reasonings. 
I suppose your first action, assuming that you 
are a man of ordinary common sense, and that 
you have established this hypothesis to your own 
satisfaction, will very likely be to go off for the 
_ police, and set them on the track of the burglar, 
with the view to the recovery of your property. 
_ But just as you are starting with this object,some | 
person comes in, and on learning what you are 
about, says, “My good friend, you are going on a 
\ great deal too fast. How do you know that the 
man who really made the marks took the spoons ? 
It might have been a monkey that took them, and 
the man may have merely looked in afterwards.” 
You would probably reply, “ Well, that is all very 
¢ well, but you see it is contrary to all experience 
"of the way tea-pots and spoons are abstracted ; so 
that, at any. rate, your hypothesis is less probable 
Bhon mine.” While you are talking the thing 
5° ver in this way, another friend arrives, one of 
E BB2 
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