714 



GLEAiSIiNGS IN BEE CULTURE 



December, 1918 



ties — bees that would have done little or 

 nothing for their own owners, and put them 

 in the class of honey money-makers- — the 

 class that would help relieve a starving 

 world. 



The severity of last winter took a fearful 

 toll of bee life. It is probable that the win- 

 ter of a year ago in the Eastern States was 

 the severest ever known. Fortunately the 

 commercial producers had fortified them- 

 selves and were ready for the emergency. 

 But in spite of all their painstaking care 

 the mortality was greater than for many 

 years previous. 



The season, however, opened up with the 

 brightest of honey-price prospects and hon- 

 ey flow. Then came the demand for bees 

 in package form. So great was the call that 

 practically all the package men of the South 

 were oversold. 



So much for the past. What of the future? 

 Will the demand for honey keep up as here- 

 tofore f Will it go to Europe by the ship- 

 load? Will the wholesale and retail grocers 

 buy it by the carload? Will the price go 

 higher or come down? Will the prospects 

 of a normal or mild winter (on the theory 

 that two severe winters seldom or never fol- 

 low consecutively), will the fine prospects of 

 clover, that have been abundant everywhere 

 this fall all over the Eastern States, and 

 will the possibility that prices on all food 

 stuffs may sag, cause the price of honey to 

 sag the coming year? 



In seeking an answer to these questions, it 

 may be well to review the course of last 

 year's honey markets. When prices shot 

 up on extracted honey from 12 and 

 13 cents in July and August to 20 and 

 22 cents in carlots f. o. b. New York 

 in December and January, the question was 

 raised, "Would these prices go down or up 

 in 1918 with the prospects of a bumper 

 crop in sight?" The prediction last year in 

 big buying circles, and especially among 

 the brokers who were looking for a chance 

 to make a scoop, was that there would be a 

 sag. But there was no sag. Prices began 

 to climb. When they got up to 16 cents 

 buyers began to say (and most of them were 

 honest in the belief) that the price could not 

 hold up. When the price went up to 18 cents 

 they were staggered. When the figures began 

 to move around 20 cents it seemed inevitable 

 as fate that they would slump. In the mean 

 time there were rumors of boatloads of honey 

 going to Europe — of how the boys on the oth- 

 er side were paying $1.60 for a pound bottle 

 of American honey. Prices continued to go 

 up, but seemed to become more stationary 

 at 20 to 221^ cents a few weeks ago. 



So it will be seen that all prophecies con- 

 cerning the honey market last year failed 

 and may again. 



Now that the war is over, will honey 

 prices drop or stay high? 



Here are some facts that might lead to 

 the conclusion that prices will drop: While 

 it is figured that it will take two years to 

 bring the boys back to America, the very 



process of bringing them back may release 

 thousands of tons of shipping space for 

 carrying food stuffs from America to Eu- 

 rope to feed not only the allies but the peo- 

 ple of the central powers against whom we 

 have been waging war. Already the Food 

 Administration at Washington has issued 

 a statement to the effect that the release of 

 shipping space will have a tendency to in- 

 crease the quantity of sugar and coffee in 

 this country. This is doubtless true, con- 

 sidering the large quantities of sugar held 

 in both the East and West Indies. With 

 the importation of a large amount of sugar 

 the price of honey would naturally fall. 

 Even at present there are indications of a 

 more plentiful domestic supply of sugar, for 

 the authorities at Washington now make it 

 possible for each person to have four in- 

 stead of two pounds of sugar monthly. The 

 possibility and probability that the hundreds 

 of thousands of tons of sugar in the West 

 Indies will soon be released may have the 

 effect of increasing the amount of sugar 

 per capita still more. It was the sugar 

 shortage that stimulated an enormous do- 

 mestic call for honey, and this shortage may 

 soon begin to be relieved. 



Now, on the other hand, there are factors 

 warranting the belief that the price of hon- 

 ey will continue high. 



The sugar refineries of Europe in the areas 

 devastated by war have been destroyed. 

 Thousands of acres that were formerly de- 

 voted to growing beets for sugar have been 

 turned over to the growing of grains. The 

 result is that Europe has almost no sugar 

 in sight. 



The process of demobilization will be com- 

 paratively slow. The internal troubles that 

 the European powers are encountering will 

 require an enormous policing, taking mil- 

 lions of men to restore and maintain order. 

 These men who would otherwise be pro- 

 ducers in Europe will have to be fed. Then, 

 moreover, there will be the millions of peo- 

 ple homeless and landless who will have to 

 have food. It is evident, therefore, that it 

 will tax all the resources of both Americas 

 to feed these people, and food supply and 

 food conditions are likely to remain much 

 the same as during the last several years. 



Mr. Hoover has said, since the armistice 

 with Germany was signed, that he did not 

 expect any great slump in the price of food 

 ■ — not for a year at least. He even thinks 

 that the demand will be even greater, be- 

 cause the central powers will have to be fed 

 as well as our allies. 



Now, balancing all these factors in the 

 food market situation, it is our honest opin- 

 ion that honey has about reached its peak in 

 price, our chief belief for saying this being 

 the likelihood of an increasing supply of 

 sugar both in America and Europe. But we 

 are not expecting an immediate slump. What 

 prices will be twelve months hence no one 

 can foretell; but the probabilities are that 

 prices of all foods will change gradually 

 with a tendency downward. 



