VALUATION AND STATICS -3 



thrive on the particular site, that a certain amount of expense will 

 suffice to care for them, that they will reach a useful size in a cer- 

 tain time, and finally, that they will have a definite value when cut. 

 If he has no faith in any of these premises it is an inexcusable 

 "gamble" for him to plant the trees. But to have faith in business 

 premises is not peculiar to forestry ; a man buying a farm believes 

 that the land will produce certain crops, produce them in ten or 

 twenty years just as now, and that the crops have a certain value, 

 justifying his labor and expense. Some years a dry season, frost, 

 hail or insects destroy most of his crops, but in the long run he main- 

 tains a successful average. 



2. Valuation and Statics. 



When the buyer estimates and examines a stand of timber 

 which he intends to cut over at once, he merely determines the 

 value for immediate use and the work is one of simple forest 

 valuation. 



When a lumberman buys a body of timber with a view of 

 supplying his business ^tor the next twenty years, the case is less 

 simple. He has to reckon with the future and with many uncer- 

 tainties ; the timber may be old and become defective before he is 

 ready to cut; fire and insects may destroy; certain railway develop- 

 ments which he expects may not take place ; the prices of timber may 

 not advance; taxes, interest, or other expense may eat up all the 

 expected profits. It is a case of nice judgment in which the differ- 

 ent factors and conditions are estimated, if possible, in money value 

 and balanced to arrive at a final result. It is a case of weighing 

 various conditions ; weighing effort and expense against expected 

 results. It is no longer simple valuation, but complex valuation 

 with a heavy proportion of statics, of the science and art of weigh- 

 ing cause and effect in our case, costs and results. 



When the owner of a piece of land decides to change from 

 farm crop to forest, he does so because he has weighed the advan- 

 tages and disadvantages of both lines and found that the forest 

 will pay better. This weighing is Forest Statics. The "pay better" 

 need not be in money at all. 



When a forester decides to give up natural reproduction and 

 plant five year transplants of spruce, he does, or should do this only 

 after careful weighing or calculation. His calculation should show 

 clearly that he may expect a material gain by going to this greater 

 expense of planting. In making his calculation he starts with the 

 cost of planting. This he knows from experience. He figures on 



