THE LIMITS OF OUR COAL SUPPLY. 231 



I have said repeatedly that it is not physical difficulties but market 

 value that will determine the limits of our coal-mining. This, like 

 all other values, is of course determined by the relation between de- 

 mand and supply. Fuel being one of the absolute necessaries of life, 

 the demand for it must continue so long as the conditions of human 

 existence remain as at present, and the outer limits of the possible 

 value of coal will be determined by that of the next cheapest kind of 

 fuel which is capable of superseding it. 



We begin by working the best and most accessible seams, and 

 while those remain in abundance the average value of coal will be de- 

 termined by the cost of producing it under these easy conditions. 

 Directly these most accessible seams cease to supply the whole de- 

 mand, the market value rises until it becomes sufficient to cover the 

 cost of working the less accessible ; and the average value will be 

 regulated not by the cost of working what remains of the first or easy 

 mines, but by that of working the most difficult that must be worked 

 in order to meet the demand. This is a simple case falling under 

 the well-established economic law, that the natural or cost value of 

 any commodity is determined by the cost value of the most costly 

 portion of it. Thus, the only condition under which we can proceed 

 to sink deeper and deeper, is a demand of sufficient energy to keep 

 pace with the continually increasing cost of production. This con- 

 dition can only be fulfilled when there is no competing source of 

 cheaper production which is adequate to supply the demand. 



The question then resolves itself into this. Is any source of sup- 

 ply likely to intervene that will prevent the value of coal from rising 

 sufficiently to cover the cost of working the coal seams of 4000 feet 

 and greater depth ? Without entering upon the question of peat and 

 wood fuel, both of which will for some uses undoubtedly come into 

 competition with British coal as it rises in value, I believe that there 

 are sound reasons for concluding that our London fireplaces, and 

 those of other towns situated on the sea-coast and the banks of navi- 

 gable rivers, will be supplied with transatlantic coal long before we 

 reach the Commissioners' limit of 4000 feet. The highest prices of 

 last winter, if steadily maintained, would be sufficient to bring about 

 this important change. Temporary upward jerks of the price of 

 coal have very little immediate effect upon supply, as the surveying, 

 conveyance, boring, sinking, and fully opening of a new coal estate 

 is a work of some years. 



The Royal Commissioners estimate that the North American coal- 

 fields contain an untouched coal area equal to seventy times the 

 whole of ours. Further investigation is likely to increase rather than 

 diminish this estimate. An important portion of this vast source of 

 supply is well situated for shipment, and may be easily worked at 

 little cost. Hitherto, the American coal fields have been greatly 

 neglected, partly on account of the temptations to agricultural occu- 

 pation which are afforded "by the vast area of the American continent, 

 and partly by the barbarous barriers of American politics. Large 

 amounts of capital which, under the social operation of the laws of 

 natural selection, would have been devoted to the unfolding of the 

 vast mineral resources of the United States, are still wastefully in- 

 vested in the maintenance of protectively nursed and sickly imita- 

 tions of English manufactures. When the political civilization of 

 the United States becomes sufficiently advanced to establish a 



