EXPECTED YIELDS 



The question now arises, how may one estimate the yield which 

 may be used safely as a business guide ? If only an average yield of 

 these different crops is obtained, the raiser secures a very modest daily 

 wage plus a small interest on the investment. A man who can produce 

 only average yields of crops will, generally speaking, do better in 

 some other business, or by working for a daily wage for others. An 

 intelligent, thrifty, careful farmer may properly hope to secure twice 

 the average return that is customary under the conditions of his soil 

 and climate, but even this is not a safe estimate on which to do 

 business. Very broadly speaking, necessarily there must be many 

 exceptions, a competent farmer may expect to secure an increase of 

 50 per cent over average yields. To illustrate, the following table 

 may be prepared showing what may be expected in California under 

 average conditions of soil and climate: 



Wheat Barley 



Average yield 13 25 



A safe estimate for business purposes 20 40 



A good yield which competent men may hope to obtain 25 50 



Yield not infrequently obtained under favorable conditions 40 75 



Possible but extraordinary yields 50 100 



These figures are merely illustrative, but it is probable that they 

 represent a somewhat general law : namely, first, that it is possible to 

 secure, under favorable conditions, a yield that is four times that 

 usually obtained; and, second, that for business purposes, it is not 

 safe to count on securing more than two-fifths of the maximum yield. 

 There are many exceptions to the rule because of varying soil and 

 climatic conditions. 



It is not intended to assert that larger returns may not be obtained, 



but to suggest that if a profit cannot be calculated upon this 



basis, then further study of the situation is needed before making a 



purchase. In order to assist a new settler in California, a table has 



sen prepared, from such data as is available, showing the yields that 



may be expected when the crop is grown by a competent man in a 



ation and on a soil adapted to it. The figures given below may be 



laid to represent the best judgment of those who, through actual 



experience and observation, are competent to judge. The figures are 



m no sense official : 



