XIV. 



ON THE ESTIMATION OF SKILL IN 

 TARGET-SHOOTIN G. 



HAPPENING to be present at an archery 

 meeting at St Leonard's not long ago, I was 

 struck, on examining the target, by observ- 

 ing a much less degree of concentration of 

 "hits," as indicated by the marks left on them about 

 the centre and within the " gold " (accompanied by a 

 rapidly-increasing frequency of marks within the imme- 

 diately-surrounding circles, proceeding thence outwards 

 from the centre), than could be at all reconciled with my 

 own preconceived impression of what ought to be the 

 proportional numbers, according to what I then con- 

 sidered as results afforded by a legitimate application of 

 the calculus of probabilities to such a question. The 

 proportional numbers of hits in the several areas dis- 

 tinguished as gold, red, blue, white, black, marked out 

 by equidistant rings of 4*8 inches each in breadth, sur- 

 rounding the gold circle of that radius, ought, accord- 



