278 



HARRIS, KIRKPATRICK, BLAKESLEE, WARNER AND CARD 



It is clear that the annual egg production of birds similar in origin to 

 the series upon which the prediction equations were based and maintained 

 under similar conditions may be predicted with a relatively high degree 

 of accuracy providing their record for any month is definitely known. 



The accuracy with which prediction may be made will be clear if the 

 errors of prediction are expressed in terms of the actual average annual 

 production of the group of birds upon which the test is made. 



TABLE 4 



Square root of mean square deviation of predicted annual egg record from actual record. Prediction 

 of annual production from one- and from two-months performance. Equations based on Slorrs 

 experience, 1911 to 1917. Test of equations on 415 While Leghorns, Storrs, 1917-1918. 



Remembering that the average annual production of the 415 test birds 

 is 157.573 eggs, we use this as a base to determine the percentage errors 

 for the equations for each month. These are given in columns with the 

 caption &quot;percentage deviation&quot; in the tables. 



We note that in predicting from December, February and August 

 record the average error with regard to sign is less than one percent of tkt 

 average annual yield of the flock. In predicting from November, Januar&amp;gt; 



