280 



HARRIS, KIRKPATRICK, BLAKESLEE, WARNER AND CARD 



of the shaded area marks the average deviation for all birds which show 

 an egg record lower than that predicted. 



The graphs representing the prediction of annual production from 

 the individual-months production appear in diagram 1 for the first six 

 months of the year and in diagram 2 for the last half of the year. 



&quot;7V ^f \ / 

 P\f V 

 , f : ,/&quot; * 



,\ j**~ 



02 4 G B 10 II 14 1C Id 20 21 24 26 



DIAGRAM 1. Tests of prediction of annual production from single-month records, 

 of November to April. For explanation see text. 



Notwithstanding the irregularities which are inevitable in graphs base 

 on such a highly variable character as annual egg production in a floe 

 of only 415 birds, the most critical reader must admit that the predictio 

 is excellent. 



