286 



HARRIS, KIRKPATRICK, BLAKESLEE, WARNER AND CARD 



with regard to sign are small. No one of the errors is over 4 eggs. Tt 

 percentage values, in which the actual average yields of the remainiD 

 months in question are used as bases, range from 0.2 for the prediction &amp;lt; 

 January-to-October production from December production to 13.6 percer 

 in the case of the prediction of September-to-October production from th 

 August record. The average deviations without regard to sign range froi 

 4.6 to 29.6 eggs. The percentage values range from 18.7 to 77.9 percec 

 of the actual production for the given remaining period. 



IB IS 20 22 24 26 



DIAGRAM 3. Tests of prediction of production for a group of remaining months from singU 

 month records. Tests for November to April. For explanation see text. 



The square root of mean square deviations vary from 5.7 to 38.7 eggs 

 or from 23.9 to 97.3 percent of the actual yield. 



The values of the average deviation without regard to sign and o 

 square root of mean square deviation decrease from the earlier to the late 

 months. This is, of course, due to the fact that in predicting the eg 

 record of the remaining months of the year the total record decreases a 

 the number of remaining months becomes smaller. It is to be expecte 



