576 



METEOROLOGY. 



the association, the Government created a spe- 

 cial department in connection with the Board 

 of Trade, under Admiral Fitzroy, its object be- 

 ing the obtaining of hydrographical and meteo- 

 rological observations at sea, after the manner 

 of those which had been for some years col- 

 lected by the American Government, at^ the 

 instance, and under the direction of Lieut. 

 Maury. la the course of the system of obser- 

 vations, as now developed, especial attention 

 has been given to the study of the winds, by 

 means of the various self-registering anemome- 

 ters of Whewell, Osier, Kobinson, and Beckley. 



Mr. Fitzroy read before the Royal Institu- 

 tion, March 28, 1862, a long and somewhat 

 rambling paper upon the system of " forecasts " 

 of the weather, with the plan of telegraphing 

 the important results arrived at to various 

 ports or other prominent points on the coasts 

 of the British Islands, and the indicating of the 

 information thus received to mariners on board 

 ships within sight, by means of a prearranged 

 system of weather or storm signals. The paper 

 just referred to, however, deals more especially 

 with the subjects o observations of the barome- 

 ter and thermometer, and of winds, &c., and 

 the connections supposed to be established be- 

 tween the characters of weather and winds 

 and the indications of those instruments in a 

 word, with the basis of the supposed newly -de- 

 veloped system of weather forecasting and 

 warnings. Although the meteorological de- 

 partment had been previously constituted, the 

 first step toward the present system, embody- 

 ing the employment of the telegraph for con- 

 veying forecasts of weather, was made at the 

 Aberdeen meeting of the association already 

 named, 1859. The department, advancing 

 slowly at the first, transmitted to parts of the 

 coast early in 1861 its first cautionary or storm- 

 warning signals. These appear to have been 

 in some parts disregarded ; but on the following 

 days a terrible storm ensued, with great loss 

 of life, on the northeast coasts. Since that time 

 the warnings have been continued, and the plan 

 gradually perfected and extended. In August, 

 1861, the first published forecasts of weather 

 were tried, and about six months later the sys- 

 tem, as now in operation, became fully estab- 

 lished. At the date of the paper above given, 

 20 reports of weather data were' received 

 each morning (Sundays excepted), and 10 each 

 afternoon, besides 5 from the Continent ; and 

 double forecasts (i. e., each day one, two 

 days in advance) were published, with the full 

 tables of observations on which they chiefly 

 depend, in six daily papers, in one weekly 

 when it apears, and also at Lloyd's, at the Ad- 

 miralty, the Horse Guards, and the Board of 

 Trade. 



The foretellings of the weather in this sys- 

 tem are not to be understood as prophecies or 

 predictions : the term " forecast " was chosen 

 as properly applicable to an opinion, the result 

 of scientific observation and deduction, but 

 which must still, occasionally, prove incorrect ; 



as, in case of the sudden "downrnsh" (Her- 

 schel) of southerly wind sometimes occurring, 

 or of rapid electrical accumulation not yet suffi- 

 ciently detectible by our senses or other exist- 

 ing methods. As must have been expected in the 

 outset of an undertaking of such magnitude 

 and novelty as this, whether in principle it be 

 really sound or not, two opinions are held in 

 England in reference to the correctness of the 

 basis of these forecasts and the actual value of 

 the warnings founded on them. By Mr. Fitz- 

 roy and his adherents, it is claimed that the 

 system is well grounded upon the actual weath- 

 er observations of its founder through a long 

 course of years, together with an analysis of 

 comprehensive and accurate weather tables 

 (barometer and thermometer indications in- 

 cluded) furnished for his use from the British 

 shores and coast points, along with, of course, 

 all the aid supplied by the general science of 

 meteorology. By opponents, however, the 

 sufficiency of the observations, and more espe- 

 cially the completeness of the analysis of these, 

 and hence, the certainty of the general princi- 

 ples supposed to have been ascertained from 

 them, are still decidedly questioned. Of these 

 general principles, those which underlie the 

 whole system, are : 1, that the condition of the 

 air (as to heat, moisture, pressure, existing 

 winds, &c.) foretells what the weather is soon 

 to be, rather than indicates the weather that is 

 present ; 2, that the longer the time between 

 the signs and the change foretold by them, the 

 longer the altered weather (when occurring) 

 will last ; and conversely, 3, that the less the 

 time between a warning and a change, the 

 shorter the continuance of the predicted 

 weather. As an example, now, of points at 

 issue between the upholders and the critics of 

 the practical system, Prof. Dove lays down 

 that the advance current of an incoming north 

 wind blows along the ground, and that the 

 storm is upon us before the instruments afford 

 due indication of it ; while Fitzroy asserts that 

 the north, like the south current, advances aloft 

 at a considerable height ; and that, therefore, 

 the barometer will generally testify to the ex- 

 istence of the one as of the other, long before 

 the actual change of wind. If the latter be in 

 error in this particular, there necessarily fol- 

 lows a doubt in regard to a considerable portion 

 of the forecasts. 



Admiral Fitzroy has recently had published 

 a volume entitled the "Weather Book " (Lon- 

 don ; Longman & Co.), in which he explains, 

 for the benefit of those who may desire to 

 apply it in any part of the world, the system 

 of forecasts from present weather, and barom- 

 eter and thermometer indications, along with 

 the aid of such special weather "signs" as are 

 considered trustworthy. His own forecasts 

 are made from observations and reports daily 

 received, as already mentioned, at the office 

 of the department, in London. For conve- 

 nience in making up, and telegraphing the fore- 

 casts, the British coasts are divided into 5 dis- 



