7 AGRICULTURAL PRICES 



not start except in times of unusually low hog prices. The heavy 

 exports of 1877-1881 did not start till hogs had declined below $5 a 

 hundred, and reached their height while hogs were $3 to $4 a hun- 

 dred. In 1882, when hog prices climbed to over $8 per hundred 

 on the Chicago market, hog exports promptly fell off, and did not 

 climb again until hog prices again went below $4 a hundred, in 



*(). In early 1893, when hog prices on the Chicago market 

 climbed up to nearly $8 a hundred again, hog exports dropped off 



\ suddenly. They did not pick up at once in 1896, when hog 

 prices went under $4 again, but did pick up very rapidly in 1897 

 and 1898, during both of which years hog prices on the Chicago 

 market were under $4 a hundred most of the time. In 1902, there 

 were heavy exports, in spite of the fact that hog prices were rela- 

 tively high, but by 1903 the British apparently had had enough of 

 buying high-priced pork on the American market, and they cur- 

 tailed their importations very decidedly. Again, in 1910, the ex- 

 ceedingly high prices stopped the export demand. During the 

 past three years there have been unprecedented exports in spite 

 of unusually high prices. But as a matter of fact, hog prices in 

 the United States have been cheaper during the past three years 

 than any place else in the world. We have been selling hogs at 

 a great bargain, or Great Britain would not have bought such tre- 

 mendous quantities from us. 



A thoro study of the exports of the United States month by 

 month from January, 1903, thru the year 1914, indicates that 

 there is a continual tendency for hog exports to be large when hog 

 prices are low, and vice versa. The correlation coefficient between 

 hog prices and hog exports is minus .52. There seems to be a 

 closer correlation between hog exports and hog prices than between 

 receipts of hogs at central markets and hog prices. The tendency 

 has been for hog exports to be 40 per cent above normal when hog 

 prices are 15 per cent below normal; for hog exports to be 20 per 

 cent above normal when hog prices are 8 per cent below normal, 

 etc. In November of 1919, when hog exports were about 40 per 

 cent above normal, it would have appeared, therefore, that hog 

 prices were about 15 per cent below normal. This is a long-swing 

 tendency, and of course there are occasional exceptions. This part 

 of the problem may be summed up to the effect that big exports 

 start in times of low hog prices, and that these exports after a time 

 stimulate both corn and hog prices, with the result that after a time 

 both corn and hogs become so high in price that exports dry up, 

 and then corn and hog prices weaken, and the whole thing starts 

 over again. There was a continuous series of these cycles previ- 



