7<; AGRICULTURAL PRICES 



Note how constant has been the productive power of the United 

 States in economic crop units per capita, decade by decade, since 

 1880. Note that since 1910 crop production has more than kept 

 pace with the increase in population. 



In the '80's \u exported the equivalent of about 650 economic 

 crop units per capita (in this we convert pork exports into corn), 

 which left, roughly, 4,500 economic crop units per capita for home 

 consumption. In the fiscal year ending June 30, 1919, we ex- 

 ported about 750 economic crop units per capita, which left, 

 roughly, 4,500 economic crop units of the 1918 crop for home con- 

 sumption. During the decade ending 1919 there has been an aver- 

 age of about 4,800 economic crop units per capita left for home 

 consumption. It was probably necessary to retain more economic 

 crop units per capita at home during the last decade than during 

 the *80's, because of the smaller live stock production per capita. 



From the standpoint of production per farm, there has been 

 a tremendous increase every decade. As an average of 1880-1889, 

 the production per farm was 66,420 units, as compared with 67,990 

 unit* for the 1890-1899 decade, 71,600 units for the 1900-1909 

 decade, and 81,000 units for the 1910-1919 decade. In response 

 to the higher price level, the productivity of the average farm has 

 constantly been increasing. If both the general price level and 

 the price of farm crops had been the same in the 1910-1919 decade 

 as in the 1900-1909 decade, the probabilities are that the average 

 production per farm would have been about 73,000 economic crop 

 units instead of 81,000. If by the 1940-1949 decade we have a 

 population of 150,000,000, and if Dun's index number at that time 

 is $170, it will be necessary to pay at Chicago an average of about 

 $1.80 for wheat, $1.15 for corn, and 65 cents for oats, in order 

 to call forth as much production per capita as was called forth 

 by the prices paid during the past forty years. When Dun's in- 

 dex number is as low as $170 (at this writing, in early 1920, it is 

 $t*4), $1.80 for wheat, etc., will be very high relatively. Rather 

 than pay such a high relative price, the consumers of the United 

 States will probably turn to Argentina and other countries where 

 farmers produce food cheaply by living on a lower standard. The 

 position of the United States, rising out of the world war, whereby 

 she is the creditor nation of the world, will favor food importa- 

 tions. 



It is a commonplace among business men that good crops mean 

 good business. The effect, however, is not as close as they imag- 

 ine. The short crop of 1901 did not affect the business world 

 till 1903 and 1904. The short crops of 1892, 1893 and 1894 did 



