PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF HOG PRICES 99 



follow the secular trend (184,000,000 pounds at Chicago), but 

 bank clearings are variable: 



Bank Clearings in January. Heavy Hog Prices. 

 $11,000,000,000 $11.35 



11,500,000,000 11.85 



16,500,000,000 16.85 



In like manner, tables may be made up for each month of the 

 year, the idea being that for each $500,000,000 the bank clearings 

 outside of New York are above or below the secular trend season- 

 ally modified, fifty cents is added to or subtracted from the secu- 

 lar trend hog price seasonally modified. Thus for April the 

 tables would be: 



Bank Clearings in April. Heavy Hog Prices. 

 $ 9,800,000,000 $12.67 



12,800,000,000 15.67 



15,800,000,000 18.67 



Taking the tables as worked out for bank clearings and hog 

 prices, we next modify for hog receipts. An excess of 33,000,000 

 pounds of hog receipts at Chicago in a 'month means on the average 

 $1.80 lower prices, and vice versa. Thus, in January, with bank 

 clearings at $13,952,000,000, we would expect the following prices 

 with various sizes of hog receipts : 



Hog Receipts (in Pounds). Heavy Hog Prices. 

 162,000,000 $15.55 



184,000,000 14.35 



195,000,000 13.75 



206,000,000 13.15 



228,000,000 11.95 



The tables herewith give this problem worked out in detail for 

 the various months. It is realized that at this writing, in early 

 1920, financial matters are still so deranged by the great war that 

 our secular trend for bank clearings may be wide of the mark. 

 This is the best prediction we can offer at this writing, and we are 

 offering it fully aware of its weakness, but fully believing that pre- 

 dictions of this sort will stimulate more thoro research. It is be- 

 lieved that better measures of demand may eventually be found 

 than bank clearings outside of New York City, and that better 

 measures of supply may be found than receipts at Chicago. Also 

 there is a possibility that the varying size of exports of hog prod- 

 ucts should be taken into account. 



