698 



KUSSIA. 



they would be completely encircled by the 

 Russians. Merv was once one of the four im- 

 perial cities of Khorassan, and the capital of 

 many of the Persian sultans, especially of the 

 Seljook dynasty, but has in modern times great- 

 ly declined, especially since the beginning of 

 the present century, when it was sacked by 

 the Oozbecks. It now has only a population 

 of 3,000, but in the hands of the Russians it 

 cannot fail to become more flourishing than at 

 any former period. The Russian papers, while 

 clamoring for the occupation of Merv, disclaim 

 any hostile intentions toward England, and 

 argue that a pacification of the Toorkomans 

 might prove as advantageous to England as to 

 Russia. English statesmen and writers are 

 fully agreed as to the importance which Merv 

 will have for the Russians, though there is a 

 difference of opinion as to whether it would in- 

 volve a direct danger for the English inter- 

 ests. Sir Henry RawKnson, in his work u The 

 British in Asia" (London, 1875), thus sets forth 

 the views of those English statesmen who be- 

 lieve that an occupation of Merv by the Rus- 

 sians would precipitate a crisis in the Central 

 Asiatic question : 



A scheme of territorial settlement is said to have 

 been much, discussed in influential quarters in the 

 early part of the present year, by which it was 

 thought the Toorkoman respite might be indefinitely 

 prolonged, so as to remove all future cause of disa- 

 greement between England and Russia, so indeed as 

 to restore peace permanently to Central Asia. Ac- 

 cording to this scheme, Russia was to declare her 

 territory between the Caspian and the Aral to be 

 bounded on the south by the old bed of the Oxus 

 throughout its course, recognizing all the region 

 beyond as the " Independent Toorkoman Steppe." 

 Now it seemed incredible that Eussia should volun- 

 tarily consent to a surrender of this nature, which 

 would compromise the safety of the military and 

 commercial lines that she had been at such pains to 

 establish across the steppe, and would further ne- 

 cessitate a withdrawal from Petro-Alexandrofsk, 

 which could not be permanently held without lateral 

 support from the Caspian ; but we were nevertheless 

 assured that the project had been approved by the 

 peace party in Eussia, and that a moderate degree of 

 pressure on the part of England was alone required 

 to insure its adoption. That pressure certainly was 

 not exerted, and the project, if it ever existed, ex- 

 cept in the imagination of certain enthusiastic poli- 

 ticians, accordingly fell through. In its place we are 

 now informed that the long-contemplated expedition 

 against the Toorkomans is on the eve of accomplish- 

 ment, a double column of attack having been organ- 

 ized, with instructions to advance simultaneously 

 into the country of the Tekkehs from Chikishlar 

 and the bay of Michaelofski, south of Krasnovodsk, 

 and to commence serious operations against the no- 

 mads. By many, no doubt, this movement will be 

 regarded as "the beginning of the end;" but for 

 my own part, I venture to think that " the end is not 

 yet." The present expedition may pave the way to 

 important results, but time is required before any- 

 thing serious can be accomplished. Large prepara- 

 tions indeed must be made, stores and supplies must 

 be concentrated both to the east and the west ; and 

 above all, grave explanations must take place with 

 England, and negotiations with Persia, before Eus- 

 sia can settle down in Merv, throw up intrench- 

 menta, found a colony, draw in populations, and di- 

 rectly threaten the Afghan frontier. What is pro- 

 posed at present is probably to sweep up the Yomuts 



and Goklands as the force marches to the eastward, 

 and thus make a strong demonstration against the 

 Tekkehs. The western division of this tribe, already 

 more or less demoralized, is not likely to offer any 

 sustained resistance though desultory skirmishes 

 may be expected to occur and General Lomakin 

 will accordingly be able, as he advances, to establish 

 along the skirts of the hills a line of posts, connect- 

 ing the advanced station at Kahriz or possibly at 

 Ashkabad with the Eussian base on the Caspian. 

 At the extreme point to which the columns may 

 penetrate^ a fort will no doubt be erected, whence 

 the same influences, both of conciliation and press- 

 ure, will be directed against the Tekkehs of Akhal 

 and Merv, that have already been so successfully 

 employed against their western brethren from Kras- 

 novodsk and Chikishlar. Disunion will be intro- 

 duced among the eastern Tekkehs as among the 

 western ; portions of the tribe will give in their al- 

 legiance, while the stubborn who elect to fight for 

 their ancestral pastures will be denounced as rebels 

 and marked down for future chastisement. But 

 Eussia will no doubt proceed in this matter with the 

 same wariness and- skill that have characterized her 

 previous movements. The first expedition is always 

 tentative. A second expedition will in all proba- 

 bility be organized next year, but even that effort 

 may perhaps extend Bussia's dominion no farther 

 than Akhal, and a third expedition may thus be 

 necessary before the great and crowning success be 

 attained in the capture and occupation of Merv ; the 

 Oxus in the mean time, however, being thoroughly 

 opened up to navigation, and regular communication 

 being established by means of a line of wells and 

 military posts between the Oxus and the Murghab. 

 This last-named precaution, indeed, is absolutely 

 necessary with a view of connecting Petro-Alexan- 

 drofsk with Merv, and thus forming a continuous 

 frontier ; and it will not be less important both to the 

 growth of Merv as a commercial emporium, and to 

 its strength and stability as the extreme Eussian 

 post to the south, that there should be a thorough 

 understanding with Persia, and a secure passage 

 across the desert which intervenes between Merv 

 and Serakhs. 



If these auxiliary measures should be fully exe- 

 cuted, and Merv, whose natural advantages are of 

 the highest order, should thus, in due course of 

 time, take rank with Samarcand and Tashkend as 

 one of the bulwarks of the Eussian position toward 

 India ; then, and not till then, would the danger of 

 collision with England assume a tangible form. The 

 Amir Shere Ali, has already foreseen under such cir- 

 cumstances that the eastern Tekkehs, together with 

 the Saruk and Salor tribes, who encamp to the south 

 of Merv, would be driven up the valley of the Mur- 

 ghab, and be thus forced to take refuge across the 

 border in the Afghan district of Badgneis, whence 

 they would continue to raid and plunder as is 

 their wont, throwing the whole frontier into con- 

 fusion, and provoking pursuit and punishment. But 

 retribution exacted from the Toorkomans on Afghan 

 soil would inevitably lead to collision with Afghan 

 subjects, with the Tamshidis and Tymuris espe- 

 cially, who guard the northwestern frontier, and any 

 such aggression on Herat territory would be the sure 

 prelude to our own interference. Putting aside, 

 indeed, the obligation on our part to protect Afghan- 

 istan from invasion an obligation which was indi- 

 cated, by Lord Derby in his very important speech 

 of May, 1875 the mere fact of Eussian troops being 

 stationed in any considerable number at Merv al- 

 though drawn to that point in their legitimate pur- 

 suit of the Tekkehs, and detained there in order to 

 hold the tribes permanently in check would be 

 fraught with sucn peril to our Indian interests that 

 we could not remain passive, even if we wished. 

 There is one point, indeed, the pivot of the whole 

 Eastern question, which must never be lost sight of 

 we cannot afford to expose Herat to the risk of 



