3 8 THE WORLD'S ARMIES 



Aircraft, then, will mainly influence operations through increased facilities for 

 information. They will enable commanders to base plans upon certainties where 

 formerly they were forced to act upon conjecture or in ignorance of material factors. 

 They will render it more difficult to mislead or mystify an opponent. They will prob- 

 ably tend to concentrate power in commanders-in-chief and curtail the freedom of 

 subordinate leaders. They will save cavalry much distant reconnaissance and accord- 

 ingly increase the value of that arm in its other duties, which consist of affording pro- 

 tection to troops and action on the battlefield. Aircraft will not replace cavalry nor 

 revolutionise its action. They will supplement but not wholly usurp one of its func- 

 tions, namely, reconnaissance. 



In regard to offence, a certain amount of the moral effect will be produced by drop- 

 ping bombs on troops, arsenals and cities; and this effect will undoubtedly be great on 

 a civilian population even if the explosives do little damage.* It is certain that attempts 

 will be made to limit the activities of aircraft and to destroy them, for which purpose 

 special weapons will be perfected for use on airships, aeroplanes and on land. It is also 

 certain that opposing forces will attempt to gain superiority in aircraft which will result 

 in an overwhelming advantage against an enemy. Hostilities in future may possibly 

 commence with a preliminary phase of aerial combat between opposing aircraft with 

 the object of obtaining the " command of the air." The results that an unopposed air- 

 craft may be able to achieve will obviously be reduced to a great extent by the pressure 

 of efficient hostile aircraft. 



IV. The Balance of Power. ."^ 



In considering the effect of recent military changes and developments upon the 

 balance of international power, it is necessary to remember that the military factor of 

 this problem cannot be considered wholly independently of its other main factors, 

 policy, sea power and wealth. The naval and military energies of war-power are close- 

 ly interrelated, and both are influenced by considerations of policy on the one hand and 

 wealth on the other. It must also be remembered that the more equally the scales of 

 power are balanced the more sensitive they become to the play of the various forces 

 which disturb their equipoise and react upon nations in unrest and at times in acute 

 tension. Under these conditions which prevail at the present day even relatively un- 

 important military developments must appreciably affect the balance of power, while 

 those of a far-reaching nature may completely alter the whole international situation. 



Three formal alliances and one unwritten accord still in the main preserve the 

 balance of power between the great nations of the world. These are the Triple Alliance 

 between Germany, Austria and Italy, the Dual Alliance between France and Russia, 

 an unwritten accord known as the Triple Entente between Britain, France and Russia, 

 and an alliance between Britain and Japan. The Triple and the Anglo-Japanese 

 Alliances have both recently been confirmed and extended for a further term of years 

 while the grouping of the Powers during political crises in the present and more immedi- 

 ate past tend to confirm the strength, reality and continuance of the Triple Entente. 

 For practical purposes the operation of the Triple and Dual Alliances and the Triple- 

 Entente is confined to the continent of Europe, while the scope of the Anglo-Japanese 

 Alliance is definitely limited to the territories of the allies in Asia. 



Among the various peoples of European descent who inhabit and dominate the 

 continents of North and South America, Africa and Australasia, there is at present no 

 " balance of power " in the sense of the international policy in force in Europe and 

 Asia. They are not yet divided by dangerous rivalries and sharp racial antagonism 

 or grouped accordingly like older nations into opposing armed camps nor do they ap- 

 preciably affect the balance of power in Europe and Asia. They are happily to a great; 

 extent domiciled upon different continents according to their principal national and 

 racial origin as Spanish and Portuguese Latins and Anglo-Saxons, and many of them 

 are separated from the others by natural barriers and vast distances of land or sea. 

 The British Self-Governing Dominions, owing to the peculiar constitution of the British 



