COAL 



839 



extension of industry, the consumption of it would keep pace with the progress of 

 population and industry. 



' He further showed that a continuance of the same progress in population and pro- 

 ductive industry would lead to an annual consumption of no less than 2,607,000,000 

 tons of coal at the end of a century. Upon this assumed rate of increase, the whole 

 quantity of coal which we have reported as available in this country would be ex- 

 hausted in 1 1 years. 



'But although Mr. Jevons's theory has, up to this time, nearly accorded with 

 observation, yet the results involved in the supposition that the annual percentage of 

 increase in the consumption of coal will continue unabated for a very lengthened 

 period are so prodigious that very few persons will be found to accept his theory 

 without considerable qualifications. 



'It had been suggested by Mr. Price Williams, who gave great attention to 

 questions of this kind, that Mr. Jevons's conclusions at all events require modifica- 

 tion to meet the fact, that although the population of this kingdom has long been 

 and still is rapidly increasing, yet the rate of its annual growth is diminishing. 



'From the year 1811 to 1821, the increase was 16 per cent., while in the last decade, 

 from 1861 to 1871, it was 11| per cent. 



Mr. Price Williams constructed a Table, of which the following is an abstract, 

 showing how the Average Diminution of the Decennial Rate of Increase of the Popula- 

 tion is obtained : 



Computing, from this and another Table constructed by Mr. Price Williams, the 

 Commissioners arrived at the following conclusions : 



The total available coal in the United Kingdom was estimated at 146,480,000,000 of 

 tons. Then, according to the views entertained, the annual consumption of coal at the 

 end of a hundred years would be 274,000,000 of tons. A further conclusion was that, 

 the now estimated quantity of coal available for use would upon this view represent a 

 consumption of 360 years. 



It will of course be observed that, assuming the rate of increased consumption as 

 above, there would be a nearly corresponding increase in the products of manufac- 

 turing industry, and the figures representing such an increase would raise questions 

 ns difficult and problematical as those raised by the assumption of a population of 

 131,000,000 360 years hence. 



The Commission then give a calculation founded upon arithmetical instead of 

 geometrical increase in the rate of consumption of coal, that is to say : they discard 

 the principle of an increase in the nature of a per-centage on the previous quantity, 

 and simply add a constant quantity equal to the average annual increase of the last 

 fourteen years, which may be taken at 3,000,000 of tons. 



Upon this basis we arrive at the following results, namely, at the end of a 

 hundred years the consumption would be 415,000,000 of tons per annum, and the 

 now estimated quantity of coal available for use would represent a consumption of 

 276 years. 



There was yet another view considered. It was that the population of the whole 

 country and the consumption of coal per head remained constant or merely oscillated 

 without advancing. Then our available coal would represent a consumption of 

 upwards of 1,273 years at the rate of 115,000,000 of tons per annum. 



The Commissioners proceed to advert to the large amount of coal excluded from 

 our previous estimates on the ground of excessive depth. The quantity of coal lying 



