v BELIEF AND EVIDENCE 105 



Plants even more than animals show by their condition 

 the weather of the past or present rather than that of 

 the future. Variations of the temperature, moisture 

 and electrical state of the air are doubtless reflected 

 readily by some plants and flowers, but the same varia- 

 tions can be detected by other means. Whether we 

 interpret the closing of the scarlet pimpernel the 

 ploughman's weather-glass the trembling of aspen 

 leaves, or the increased odour of flowers, we must 

 recognise that these are only signs of possible showers 

 coming soon, and that no indications can be given of 

 the weather to follow afterwards. 



The conditions of trees in the spring, whether the oak 

 comes into leaf before the ash, or the ash before the oak 

 as it is sometimes said to do are determined entirely 

 by past performances of the weather, and have nothing 

 whatever to do with the future. Similarly, when bushes 

 have plenty of berries, it is because conditions were 

 favourable for the production of their fruit when they were 

 in flower, and not because the coming winter is to be 

 severe. The temperature, sunshine, rainfall, abundance 

 of particular insects, and other past causes which affect 

 the birth and growth of plants, decide whether the 

 berries shall be few or many, and not the future conditions. 



In some years, no doubt, popular confidence in the 

 supply of beneficent berries for hungry birds is justified, 

 while in other years it is not, but people forget their 

 failures and remember only their successes, and this 

 infirmity of human nature causes many beliefs to endure 

 which can find no support in the results of critical study. 

 Records of the behaviour of plants and animals under 

 different atmospheric conditions and in different seasons 

 are of interest to the meteorologist, but they have not 

 yet been found of any service in making forecasts of 



