THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 



the 26th of October, 1769, Mr James Boswell 

 after dining with Dr Johnson at the Mitre went home 

 with him to tea. "Russia being mentioned as likely 

 to become a great empire, by the rapid increase of 

 population: JOHNSON. 'Why, Sir, I see no prospect 

 of their propagating more. They can have no more 

 children than they can get. I know of no way to 

 make them breed more than they do. It is not from 

 reason and prudence that people marry, but from 

 inclination. A man is poor; he thinks, "I cannot be 

 worse, and so I'll e'en take Peggy.'" BOSWELL. 'But 

 have not nations been more populous at one period 

 than another?' JOHNSON. 'Yes, Sir; but that has 

 been owing to the people being less thinned at one 

 period than another, whether by emigrations, war, or 

 pestilence, not by their being more or less prolifick. 

 Births at all times bear the same proportion to the 

 same number of people." 



To me this remarkable dictum appears to be con- 

 tradicted by the experience of every nation for which 

 we have records over a sufficient period of time and of 

 sufficient accuracy. It is still, however, the prevalent 

 view that, in the course of nature, legitimate births 

 at all times bear the same proportion to the same 

 number of married persons of fertile ages, and that 

 any alteration in this proportion implies artificial 

 tol. This view will be traversed in the latter part 

 of my paper. Fir>t let us consider the data respecting 

 births in our own country, England and Wales, and 

 endeavour to interpret the figures. 



