THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 9 



be borne in mind in considering the data published 

 by the Registrar General for England and Wales, 

 from whose reports the data of Table I are extracted. 



It will be seen from the first column that while in 

 the quinquennium 1851-55 the births registered we re- 

 in the proportion of 33-9 per thousand of the popula- 

 tion per annum, this figure rose to a maximum of 

 35-5 for the quinquennium 1871-5 and since then has 

 fallen without a break, the average for 1906-10 being 

 only 26-3 or rather over 25 per cent, less than the 

 biggest quinquennial average. The greatest figure 

 touched in any individual year was 36-3 in 1876, while 

 in 1911 it was only 24-4, a fall of roundly one-third. 

 To the rise previous to 1876 too much importance 

 cannot be attached, as it is uncertain how far it may 

 be due to increasing completeness of registration : it 

 is with the fall I am mainly concerned. I have added 

 to the quinquennial averages the figures for single 

 s up to 1919, but later years are so largely affected 

 by the special circumstances of the war that I propose 

 to confine myself for the most part to the pre-war 

 period ending with 191 1 the year of the last census. 



Compare first the change that has taken place in 

 the birth-rate with the changes that have taken place 

 in the marriage-rate and in the death-rate. You will 

 see that the marriage- rate pi no conspicuous 



fall comparable in magnitude with that of the birth- 

 rate. From 1851 to 1875 l * fluctuated round a figure 

 of 16 to 17 persons married per thousand of the popu- 

 n per annum, then fell rather abruptly, and has 

 fluctuated round 15 to 16 per thousand, only 

 tailing under an average of 15 during the (|iiiiu|uen- 

 nium 1886-90. The marriage-rate shows, then, a tall 

 -idem in tune with the be^iniunu 

 of the fall in the birth-rate, but this tall did not . 

 ie. 



