io THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 



The death-rate (persons dying per 1000 of the 

 population per annum) has fallen continuously since 

 the quinquennium 1861-5, wnen it stood at 22-6, to 

 the low value of 14-7 for the quinquennium 1906-10, 

 a fall of over one-third. Owing to this fall, the 

 "natural rate of increase " of the population, given 

 by the excess of the birth-rate over the death-rate, 

 has not dropped so much as might have been ex- 

 pected. It averaged 12-0 per thousand per annum 

 for the decade 1851-60, rose to a maximum of 14-0 

 for the decade 1871-80 and fell to 11-7 in the decade 

 1891-1900 and 1 1-8 in the following decade. The 

 greatest quinquennial average reached was 14*5 in the 

 quinquennium 1876-80. As a general rule a lower 

 birth-rate is accompanied by a lower mortality in 

 infancy. It is therefore rather remarkable that the 

 infantile mortality which, as we do not know the 

 numbers living under one year of age with any ac- 

 curacy, is usually measured by the number of deaths 

 under one year of age to 1000 births in the same year 

 did not show any effective decrease until after the 

 beginning of the present century. Since the year 1900 

 there has been a very considerable saving of infant 

 life. 



We have seen then from Table I that : 



(1) There has been since 1876 a heavy fall in the 

 birth-rate amounting to roundly one-third. 



(2) This has been accompanied by a countervailing 

 fall in the death-rate (involving since 1900 a consider- 

 able saving of infant life) so that there was still in 

 both the last two intercensal periods a natural rate of 

 increase of over 1 1 per thousand per annum, or rather 

 more than 12 per cent, in a decade. 



It is clear, however, that the death-rate cannot fall 

 indefinitely, while there is nothing to stop the birth- 

 rate from falling to zero, so that an increase in the 



