i 4 THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 



would be right, as shown in the last column of 

 Table III. Of 1000 married women under 45 years 

 of age in 1871 no less than 607 were (or said they 

 were) under 35 years of age, but this proportion fell 

 to 604 in 1881, 597 in 1891, 593 in 1901 and 559 only 

 in 1911. 



We must then add to our previous conclusions the 

 modifying clause : 



(6) The effect of the increasing proportion to the 

 population of married women of fertile age will have 

 been lessened, or possibly nullified, by their in- 

 creasing average age. 



Now let us eliminate from the birth-rate in some 

 way the effect of these changes in the proportion of 

 the married women to the population and in their 

 average age. 



TABLE IV. ENGLAND AND WALES. 



Legitimate birth-rate and fertility of married 

 women. 



Legitimate births 



, > ! N Newsholme and 



per 1000 Stevenson* 



married standardised 



per 1000 women Tait's legitimate 

 Year living under 45 coefficient birth-rate 



1851 31-9 285 -66 33-06 



1861 32-4 280 -63 32-36 



1871 33-0 288 -67 33-12 



1881 32-2 285 -66 32-73 



1891 30-1 269 -58 31*25 



1901 27-4 234 -39 27-40 



1911 23-4 196 -20 23-67 



* The figures for 1851 and for 1911 have been added to those given 

 in Newsholme and Stevenson's paper. 



First of all we must remove the illegitimate births 

 from the birth-rate. From 1851 to 1865 the illegiti- 

 mate births numbered some 2-2 per thousand of the 

 population. A fall then set in, and from 1901 to 1910 



