THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 21 



yt. r> Three years' average 

 1871-81 0-5 per cent. 0-5 per cent. 



1881-91 5 7 



1891-01 12 ic 



1901-11 14 14 



The value of the birth-rate in 1891 was exceptionally 

 high, forming a sharp peak on the curve; if a three 

 years* average is taken of the births round the census 

 years, the approximate figures of the second column 

 are obtained and are probably the better representa- 

 tion of the course of affairs. They show a rapidly 

 accelerating decrea 



We may then add to our conclusions : 



(7) The main factor in the fall of the birth-rate has 



been a decrease in the fertility of married women: 



this fall has been proceeding at an accelerating speed. 



This discussion fairly clears up the facts so far as 



England and Wales as a whole are concerned. But 



before going further it may be as well to devote a 



Hues to the further consideration of the method 



of calculation adopted. Note that there are several 



matters which it does not take into account. Any 



possible effect of age of the husband is ignored, and 



likewise the duration of marriage the number of 



children to be expected in a year from wives aged, 



say, 35 is not the same it they have been married 20 



years as if they have been married 5. But age of 



datively a very minor matter; Dr Dud- 



field (refs. 8) included age of husband in a method ot 



standardisation ami its effect was quite- immaterial. 



be remembered that in correcting for age of 



we are in effect making a partial correction for 



age of husband A-O are very closely related, 



and the observed fertility rates for married women of 



a given age are dependent, in some degree, on the 



age of their hu We standardise, in tact, to 



wives having husbands of the age usually associated 





