3 o THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 



born. If we take instead the figures for effective fer- 

 tilities, i.e. for numbers of children surviving at the 

 date of the census, there are some interesting changes 

 but no alteration in the essential point as to the social 

 gradation at the present day. The figures for effective 

 or net fertilities are given by Dr Stevenson in his 

 table and they compare as follows with those for the 

 total fertilities. For the marriages of 1851-61 : 



Class 



A. 



12345678 



Total 89 99 101 99 103 94 108 105 



Effective 91 102 98 98 99 91 97 in 



For the marriages of 1896-1901 : 



Class 

 ^ s 



i 345678 



Total 76 89 99 101 114 86 125 114 



Effective 81 92 99 101 109 83 119 119 



In the marriages of 1851-61 the only marked 

 feature in classes i to 5 is, as before, the lowness of 

 the fertility of the professional class : in net fertility, 

 however, class 2 stands higher than class 5, thus 

 reversing their positions for gross fertility. But the 

 difference either way is small. In the case of the 

 special classes it is interesting to note that the posi- 

 tions of the miner and the agricultural labourer are 

 reversed : the net fertility of the agricultural labourer 

 is considerably higher than that of the miner. 



Turning to the marriages of 1896-1901 we find 

 that the substitution of effective for total fertility 

 leaves classes i to 5 in precisely the same order as 

 before, and only reduces the range. The total fer- 

 tilities of classes i and 5 stand in the ratio of 76 : 114; 

 their effective fertilities in the ratio of 81 : 109. The 

 gross fertility of unskilled labour exceeds that of the 

 professional classes by some 50 per cent.: its effective 

 fertility exceeds that of the professional classes by 



