THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 35 



If we could trust the birth-rate as an index there 

 would be little difficulty. The birth-rate in France, 

 for example, decreased not from 1876 or thereabouts 

 but from the very beginning of the nineteenth cen- 

 tury onwards: in 1811-20 the average rate per 

 thousand of the population of all ages averaged 31-8: 

 in 1841-50 it had fallen to 27-4 or by 14 per cent. In 

 1871-80 it had fallen further to 25-4 (cf. Table II) or 

 by a further 7 per cent, and in 1901-10 by a yet further 

 19 per cent. The fall of the birth-rate was not a 

 phenomenon dating only from the seventies. Again, 

 the birth-rate in Geneva averaged as follows over 

 certain periods (data cited from Brownlee, ref . 9) : 



1695-1710 36-8 

 1711-1730 33-4 

 1731-1750 31-5 



1751-1770 33-3 



1771-1791 31-2 



1806-1812 24-3 



1814-1823 20-8 



1824-1833 22-4 



Between the beginning of the eighteenth century and 

 the early nineteenth century there was a fall of over 

 40 per cent. For our own country (England and 

 Wales) we have no early records of the birth-rate. 

 But the best estimates of population in the eighteenth 

 century suggest an increase from 5-8 millions in 1700 

 to 6-3 in 1750, an increase of only half a million or 

 9 per cent. At the end of the century the population 

 was some 8-9 millions, an increase of 2-6 millions or 

 40 per cent. (cf. Conner, Journ. Stat. Soc. vol. LXXVI. 



But, however suggestive these figures may be, we 

 HO! trust the birth-rate as an index to married 

 lity for we cannot be certain that it has not been 

 materially affected by changes in the proportion of 

 ried women to the population, and the rate of 

 increase of a population is affected by the death -rate 



