42 THE FALL OF THE BIRTH-RATE 



to give rise to a swing in population of a very long 

 period. 



On the general question of the relation between 

 rate of increase of population and prices, it may be 

 pointed out that the course of population in England 

 and Wales during the eighteenth century, to which 

 reference has already been made, seems to be in 

 general accordance with the same rule. In the first 

 half century, when the price-level was low, popula- 

 tion increased very slowly, at the rate of less than 

 2 per cent, in the decade. During the third quarter 

 of the century, when prices were little higher, the 

 rate of increase was still low, averaging under 4 per 

 cent, in the decade. During the last quarter prices 

 had risen to a much higher level and the rate of 

 increase of the population averaged over 10 per cent, 

 per decade. 



The war has effected an unprecedented break in 

 the life of our own nation, and of all European 

 nations, and in the economic conditions of the world. 

 The course of many things in the future will be of 

 the highest interest, and the course of the birth-rate 

 not be the least interesting. You will see from Table I 

 that the figure for 1919 showed some recovery from 

 the war level, but the average for the year hardly 

 indicates what was happening. The figures for suc- 

 cessive quarters since January, 1919, have been as 

 follows : 



/ First quarter 15-6 



I Second quarter 15-9 



| Third quarter 18-5 



^Fourth quarter 23-6 



1920 First quarter 29-0 



It was not till the third quarter of 1919 that the post- 

 armistice conceptions began to make themselves felt. 

 The usual course of the birth-rate after a war is a 

 rapid rise to a quite abnormal figure in the first year 



