150 FARMERS' UNION AND FEDERATION 



and early 1919, but his price suddenly is made for him with regard to 

 conditions that the packers foresee for 1920. The sole method by 

 which he is now turned from one specialty to another of his business 

 is by being pinched out of his profit. 



"A great grain manipulator acts in a similarly scientific way. He 

 has his lines out for information from every quarter of the globe as to 

 oats, or corn, or wheat. When he assembles all the information ob- 

 tainable he draws his inferences as]to what must be true next July or 

 September, and he buys or sells accordingly, sometimes finding condi- 

 tions such that he can actually corner a grain product. 



"Mr. Baruch, whom the government drafted for war work and who 

 thereupon cut all his lines of communication with Wall Street, is often 

 referred to as a stock gambler. What Mr. Baruch is in fact is a man 

 of scientific methods and knowledge regarding certain corporations and 

 their properties. He assembles the data regarding them, what their 

 capital is and how it compares with their assets, whether they produce 

 a marketable article, what its future is likely to be, whether they have 

 been distributing their earnings in dividends or putting them back, 

 'plowing them in,' extending and improving their plants. When he 

 has all obtainable data assembled he draws his inferences and acts ac- 

 cordingly. It is not surprising that he is a successful speculator in 

 stocks. He has the information not possessed by the public or by Wall 

 Street's 'lambs.' His methods are scientific. 



"All these speculators see ahead, on information exclusive to them 

 and obtained by them at their own expense. 



"Not so the farmer. Now, what the farmer should get from the 

 Agricultural Department in a market bureau is just such data, assembled 

 from all parts of the globe by the department specialists, and more than 

 that, with the inferences drawn. Periodically the department should 

 give out its data and its inferences therefrom for the benefit of the 

 public, data more exhaustive than that of the packers on meat products 

 or the grain speculator on grain. The department market bureau 

 should take the risk of making market predictions, months or whole 

 seasons ahead, just as it takes the risk today of making weather pre- 

 dictions a week ahead. It may occasionally miss, but in a large pre- 

 ponderance of predictions it will hit the mark. 



"Such a prediction was made, for the first time, so far as we know, 

 the other day by Herbert Hoover, with regard to the present conditions 

 and future prospects of the fats market, especially with regard to hogs. 

 He advised American farmers to discontinue marketing half-fattened 

 hogs, and while he admitted that at present prices the farmer cannot 

 afford to continue feeding, yet he predicted that as soon as peace is 

 signed the demand for fats throughout the world will suddenly leap 

 forward and the farmer with fats for sale will reap a rich reward. 



