than to allow horses to consume so much food part 

 of which might be converted to human use. 



At first the tractor industry developed slowly, with 

 a production in 1912 of 11,500. See Chart 12. Two 

 years later the output was 15,000, then 21,000, then 

 35,000, and then 55,000 in 1917. In 1918 the output 

 is estimated at about 100,000. It appears likely that 

 the output will amount to 250,000 by 1920, if mate- 

 rial and labor are available. 



It is estimated conservatively that the potential 

 tractor market will exceed 1,250,000. Some estimates 

 place the number much larger. If the average life of 

 a tractor be estimated at five years, it would indicate 

 an annual replacement market of 250,000. This, to- 

 gether with the necessity of filling the original market, 

 makes it seem quite possible that 400,000 or even 

 500,000 tractors may eventually be sold in a year. It 

 is interesting to note that 250,000 tractors at $1,000 

 each means a market of $250,000,000, which is about 

 as large as the entire annual output of the agricultural 

 implement industry before the war, which amounted 

 to $164,000,000 in 1914 at manufacturers' prices. 

 The tractor industry in itself seems to offer greater 

 possibilities than did the entire agricultural imple- 

 ment industry before the war. 



It is estimated that there are on the farms of the 

 United States from 1,500,000 to 2,000,000 auto- 

 mobiles. In every agricultural section dealers report 

 that prior to the opening of the war they were selling 

 more automobiles to farmers than to the city popula- 

 tion. With the return of normal times the number of 

 automobiles on farms is likely to materially increase, 

 for the automobile is increasingly essential to the 

 efficient operation of the farm. 



It is estimated that in normal times farmers buy 

 annually 250,000 gasoline engines. It is reported that 



[35] 



