270 ON THE PRICE OF GRAIN. 



that the intention of her unpublished proclamation printed 

 in Vol. iii. p. 742, was directed. For, obscure as the laws are 

 which govern the rise or the decline of general prices, there is 

 always every effort made by all parties interested, i.e. by all in- 

 dustrial agents, to keep them up, and the force which assists 

 these efforts is so considerable by its aggregation that nothing 

 but a social convulsion, which every conservative instinct arms 

 itself to resist, will force them down. 



I may also observe here, that the results of my figures go to 

 prove that fact or law in statistical averages, which is dominant 

 when these averages are discreetly drawn, that abnormal rates 

 of local cheapness and dearness, when constant causes remain 

 and varying causes are distributed, do not appear in the result, 

 the exceptional facts and exceptional agencies correcting 

 each other. I anticipated indeed before I drew my averages 

 that the results of the first 140 years of the present enquiry 

 would correspond with those which I arrived at for the earlier 

 period, thirteen years ago, but I did not anticipate that the 

 results would have been so exact, and that the remaining 

 causes of slight variation would have been capable of such easy 

 explanation. The seasons in the fifteenth century were indeed 

 singularly propitious, and I am disposed to believe that the 

 gradual rise in the last three decades is quite as much to be 

 ascribed to slightly defective harvests, as it could be to in- 

 creased demand or to generally stiffening prices. 



The average price of wheat during the first 140 years of the 

 present enquiry is 5^-. 1 1 \d. the quarter. 



The following years were those of great dearth, the price of 

 wheat rising above los. the quarter: 1438, 1482, 1527, 1535, 



In three years it rose above 9^. the quarter, 1437, 1512, 1520. 



In these years it rose above 8j., 1409 (when it was nearly qs.), 

 1428, 1481, 1501, 1502, 1528, 1529, 1530, 1531. 



In the following it was above 7^.: 1401, 1408, 1416, 1439, 

 1460, 1461, 1483, 1519, 1521, 1533, 1537. 



In the following it was above 6s. : 1402, 1415, 1418, 1420, 



