50 INDUCTION. 



is any connexion between a and A, since a may have many 

 causes, and may have been produced, in these different in 

 stances, not by anything which the instances had in common, 

 but by some of those elements in them which were different. 

 We nevertheless observed, that in proportion to the multipli 

 cation of instances pointing to A as the antecedent, the cha 

 racteristic uncertainty of the method diminishes, and the 

 existence of a law of connexion between A and a more nearly 

 approaches to certainty. It is now to be determined, after 

 what amount of experience this certainty may be deemed to be 

 practically attained, and the connexion between A and a may 

 be received as an empirical law. 



This question may be otherwise stated in more familiar 

 terms : After how many and what sort of instances may it be 

 concluded, that an observed coincidence between two pheno 

 mena is not the effect of chance ? 



It is of the utmost importance for understanding the logic 

 of induction, that we should form a distinct conception of 

 what is meant by chance, and how the phenomena which 

 common language ascribes to that abstraction are really pro 

 duced. 



2. Chance is usually spoken of in direct antithesis to 

 law ; whatever (it is supposed) cannot be ascribed to any law, 

 is attributed to chance. It is, however, certain, that whatever 

 happens is the result of some law ; is an effect of causes, and 

 could have been predicted from a knowledge of the existence 

 of those causes, and from their laws. If I turn up a particular 

 card, that is a consequence of its place in the pack. Its place 

 in the pack was a consequence of the manner in which the 

 cards were shuffled, or of the order in which they were played 

 in the last game ; which, again, were effects of prior causes. 

 At every stage, if we had possessed an accurate knowledge of 

 the causes in existence, it would have been abstractedly pos 

 sible to foretell the effect. 



An event occurring by chance, may be better described as 

 a coincidence from which we have no ground to infer an uni 

 formity : the occurrence of a phenomenon in certain circum- 



