HISTORICAL METHOD. 511 



4. But, while it is an imperative rule never to intro 

 duce any generalization from history into the social science 

 unless sufficient grounds can be pointed out for it in human 

 nature, I do not think any one will contend that it would have 

 been possible, setting out from the principles of human nature 

 and from the general circumstances of the position of our 

 species, to determine d. priori the order in which human de 

 velopment must take place, and to predict, consequently, the 

 general facts of history up to the present time. After the 

 first few terms of the series, the influence exercised over each 

 generation by the generations which preceded it, becomes (as 

 is well observed by the writer last referred to) more and more 

 preponderant over all other influences; until at length what 

 we now are and do, is in a very small degree the result of the 

 universal circumstances of the human race, or even of our own 

 circumstances acting through the original qualities of our 

 species, but mainly of the qualities produced in us by the 

 whole previous history of humanity. So long a series of 

 actions and reactions between Circumstances and Man, each 

 successive term being composed of an ever greater number and 

 variety of parts, could not possibly be computed by human 

 faculties from the elementary laws which produce it. The mere 

 length of the series would be a sufficient obstacle, since a slight 

 error in any one of the terms would augment in rapid progres 

 sion at every subsequent step. 



If, therefore, the series of the effects themselves did not, 

 when examined as a whole, manifest any regularity, we should 

 in vain attempt to construct a general science of society. We 

 must in that case have contented ourselves with that subordi 

 nate order of sociological speculation formerly noticed, namely, 

 with endeavouring to ascertain what would be the effect of the 

 introduction of any new cause, in a state of society supposed 

 to be fixed ; a knowledge sufficient for the more common 

 exigencies of daily political practice, but liable to fail in all 

 cases in which the progressive movement of society is one of 

 the influencing elements; and therefore more precarious in 

 proportion as the case is more important. But since both the 

 natural varieties of mankind, and the original diversities of 



