HISTORICAL METHOD. 523 



in which nothing is indicated but the relation of fragments of 

 the effect to corresponding fragments of the cause. It is 

 necessary to combine the statical view of social phenomena 

 with the dynamical, considering not only the progressive 

 changes of the different elements, but the contemporaneous 

 condition of each; and thus obtain empirically the law of 

 correspondence not only between the simultaneous states, but 

 between the simultaneous changes, of those elements. This 

 law of correspondence it is, which, duly verified a priori, would 

 become the real scientific derivative law of the development of 

 humanity and human affairs. 



In the difficult process of observation and comparison 

 which is here required, it would evidently be a great assistance 

 if it should happen to be the fact, that some one element in 

 the complex existence of social man is pre-eminent over all 

 others as the prime agent of the social movement. For we 

 could then take the progress of that one element as the central 

 chain, to each successive link of which, the corresponding 

 links of all the other progressions being appended, the succes 

 sion of the facts would by this alone be presented in a kind of 

 spontaneous order, far more nearly approaching to the real 

 order of their filiation than could be obtained by any other 

 merely empirical process. 



Now, the evidence of history and that of human nature 

 combine, by a striking instance of consilience, to show that 

 there really is one social element which is thus predominant, 

 and almost paramount, among the agents of the social pro 

 gression. This is, the state of the speculative faculties of 

 mankind ; including the nature of the beliefs which by any 

 means they have arrived at, concerning themselves and the 

 world by which they are surrounded. 



It would be a great error, and one very little likely to be 

 committed, to assert that speculation, intellectual activity, the 

 pursuit of truth, is among the more powerful propensities of 

 human nature, or holds a predominating place in the lives of 

 any, save decidedly exceptional, individuals. But, notwith 

 standing the relative weakness of this principle among other 

 sociological agents, its influence is the main determining cause 



