xx vi Contents. 



CHAPTER XIY. 



FALLACIES. 



i_3. (I.) Errors in judging of events after they have happened. 

 47. Very various judgments may be thus involved. 

 8, 9. (II.) Confusion between random and picked selections. 

 10, 11. (III.) Undue limitation of the notion of Probability. 

 1216. (IV.) Double or Quits : the Martingale. 

 17, 18. Physical illustration. 



19, 20. (V.) Inadequate realization of large numbers. 

 21 24. Production of works of art by chance. 

 25. Illustration from doctrine of heredity. 

 26 30. (VI.) Confusion between Probability and Induction. 

 3133. (VII.) Undue neglect of small chances. 

 34, 35. (VIII.) Judging by the event in Probability and in Induction. 



PART III. 



VAEIOUS APPLICATIONS OF THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY. 

 CHH. XV XIX. 



CHAPTER XV. 



INSURANCE AND GAMBLING. 



5 1, 2. The certainties and uncertainties of life. 



35. Insurance a means of diminishing the uncertainties. 

 6, 7. Gambling a means of increasing them. 

 8, 9. Various forms of gambling. 

 10, 11. Comparison between these practices. 

 12 14. Proofs of the disadvantage of gambling: 

 (1) on arithmetical grounds: 



