SECT. 11.] Randomness and its scientific treatment. 107 



out from here in each direction according to an easily 

 calculated formula. The existence of such a state of things 

 as this is quite opposed to the conception of true randomness. 



10. III. Apart from definitions and what comes of 

 them, perhaps the most important question connected with 

 the conception of Randomness is this: How in any given 

 case are we to determine whether an observed arrangement 

 is to be considered a random one or not? This question will 

 have to be more fully discussed in a future chapter, but we 

 are already in a position to see our way through some of the 

 difficulties involved in it. 



(1) If the events or objects under consideration are sup 

 posed to be continued indefinitely, or if we know enough 

 about the mode in which they are brought about to detect 

 their ultimate tendency, or even, short of this, if they are 

 numerous enough to be beyond practical counting, there is 

 no great difficulty. We are simply confronted with a ques 

 tion of fact, to be settled like other questions of fact. In the 

 case of the rain-drops, watch two equal squares of pavement 

 or other surfaces, and note whether they come to be more 

 and more densely uniformly and evenly spotted over: if they 

 do, then the arrangement is what we call a random one. If 

 I want to know whether a tobacco-pipe really breaks at ran 

 dom, and would therefore serve as an illustration of the 

 problem proposed some pages back, I have only to drop 

 enough of them and see whether pieces of all possible lengths 

 are equally represented in the long run. Or, I may argue 

 deductively, from what I know about the strength of ma 

 terials and the molecular constitution of such bodies, as to- 

 whether fractures of small and large pieces are all equally 

 likely to occur. 



11. The reader s attention must be carefully directed 

 to a source of confusion here, arising out of a certain cross- 



