110 Randomness and its scientific treatment. [CHAP. v. 



any moderately small area, say a square yard, we shall find 

 much about the same number of the plants included in it. 

 But we can help ourselves by an appeal to the known agency 

 of distribution here. We know that the daisy spreads by 

 seed, and considering the effect of the wind and the continued 

 sweeping and mowing of the lawn we can detect causes at 

 work which are analogous to those by which the dealing of 

 cards and the tossing of dice are regulated. 



In the above case the appeal to the process of production 

 was subsidiary, but when we come to consider the nature of 

 a very small succession or group this appeal becomes much 

 more important. Let us be told of a certain succession of 

 heads and tails to the number of ten. The range here is 

 far too small for decision, and unless we are told whether the 

 agent who obtained them was tossing or designing we are 

 quite unable to say whether or not the designation of ran 

 dom ought to be applied to the result obtained. The truth 

 must never be forgotten that though design is sure to 

 break down in the long run if it make the attempt to pro 

 duce directly the semblance of randomness 1 , yet for a short 

 spell it can simulate it perfectly. Any short succession, say 

 of heads and tails, may have been equally well brought 

 about by tossing or by deliberate choice. 



13. The reader will observe that this question of 

 randomness is being here treated as simply one of ultimate 

 statistical fact. I have fully admitted that this is not the 

 primitive conception, nor is it the popular interpretation, 

 but to adopt it seems the only course open to us if we are to 

 draw inferences such as those contemplated in Probability. 

 When we look to the producing agency of the ultimate 

 arrangement we may find this very various. It may prove 

 itself to be (a few stages back) one of conscious deliberate 



1 Vide p. 68. 



