SECT. 11.] Measurement of Belief. 131 



suggests the inexpediency of attempting to found an exact 

 theory on what may afterwards prove to be a mere instinct, 

 unauthorized in its full extent by experience. 



11. It may be replied, that though people, as a matter 

 of fact, do not apportion belief in this exact way, yet they 

 ought to do so. The purport of this remark will be examined 

 presently ; it need only be said here that it grants all that 

 is now contended for. For it admits that the degree of our 

 belief is capable of modification, and may need it. But in 

 accordance with what is the belief to be modified ? obviously 

 in accordance with experience ; it cannot be trusted to by 

 itself, but the fraction at which it is to be rated must be 

 determined by the comparative frequency of the events to 

 which it refers. Experience then furnishing the standard, it 

 is surely most reasonable to start from this experience, and to 

 found the theory of our processes upon it. 



If we do not do this, it should be observed that we are 

 detaching Probability altogether from the study of things 

 external to us, and making it nothing else in effect than a 

 portion of Psychology. If we refuse to be controlled by 

 experience, but confine our attention to the laws according 

 to which belief is naturally or instinctively compounded and 

 distributed in our minds, we have no right then to appeal to 

 experience afterwards even for illustrations, unless under the 



many readers will readily infer, to stance of immortality and the exist- 



J. S. Mill s exceedingly interesting ence of the Deity), may nevertheless 



Essays on Theism. It is not within not only continue to exist in culti- 



our province here to criticise any of vated minds, but may also be pro- 



their conclusions, but they have ex- fitably encouraged there, at any rate 



pressed in a very significant way the in the shape of hopes, for certain 



conviction entertained by him that supposed advantages attendant on 



beliefs which are not justified by their retention, irrespective even of 



evidence, and possibly may not be their truth, 

 capable of justification (those for in- 



92 



