SECT. 32.] Measurement of Belief. 157 



his death-bed. The only resource is to check and correct 

 his belief by appealing to past and current experience 1 . This 

 was advanced as an objection to the theory on which proba 

 bility is regarded as concerned primarily with laws of belief. 

 But on the view taken in this Essay in which we are sup 

 posed to be concerned with laws of inference about things, 

 error and difficulty from this source vanish. Let us bear clearly 

 in mind that we are concerned with inferences about things, 

 and whatever there may be in belief which does not depend 

 on experience will disappear from notice. 



32. These emotions then can claim no notice as an 

 integral portion of any science of inference, and should in 

 strictness be rigidly excluded from it. But if any of them 

 are uniform and regular in their production and magnitude, 

 they may be fairly admitted as accidental and extraneous 

 accompaniments. This is really the case to some extent 

 with our surprise. This emotion does show a considerable 

 degree of uniformity. The rarer any event is the more am I, 

 in common with most other men, surprised at it when it does 

 happen. This surprise may range through all degrees, from 

 the most languid form of interest up to the condition which 

 we term being startled . And since the surprise seems 

 to be pretty much the same, under similar circumstances, 

 at different times, and in the case of different persons, it is 

 free from that extreme irregularity which is found in most 

 of the other mental conditions which accompany the con- 



1 The best example I can recall usual statistical ground of the ex- 

 of the distinction between judging treine rarity of such events. She 

 from the subjective and the objec- listened patiently, and then replied, 

 tive side, in such cases as these, &quot;Yes, Sir, that is all very well; but 

 occurred once in a railway train. I don t see how the real danger will 

 I met a timid old lady who was be a bit the less because I don t be- 

 in much fear of accidents. I en- lieve in it.&quot; 

 deavoured to soothe her on the 



