160 Measurement of Belief. [CHAP. vi. 



was the same generality of agreement, subject to occasional 

 deflection 1 . 



On the other hand, observe the words wonderful , un 

 expected , incredible . Their connotation describes states 

 of mind simply ; they are of course not confined to Proba 

 bility, in the sense of statistical frequency, but imply simply 

 that the events they denote are such as from some cause we 

 did not expect would happen, and at which therefore, when 

 they do happen, we are surprised. 



Now when we bear in mind that these two classes of 

 words are in their origin perfectly distinct; the one de 

 noting simply events of a certain character ; the other, 

 though also denoting events, connoting simply states of 

 mind; and yet that they are universally applied to the 

 same events, so as to be used as perfectly synonymous, we 

 have in this a striking illustration of the two sides under 

 which Probability may be viewed, and of the universal recog 

 nition of a close connection between them. The words are 

 popularly used as synonymous, and we must not press their 

 meaning too far ; but if it were to be observed, as I am 

 rather inclined to think it could, that the application of the 

 words which denote mental states is wider than that of the 

 others, we should have an illustration of what has been 

 already observed, viz. that the province of Probability is not 

 so extensive as that over which variation of belief might be 

 observed. Probability only considers the case in which this 

 variation is brought about in a certain definite statistical 

 way. 



34. It will be found in the end both interesting and 

 important to have devoted some attention to this subjective 



1 This would still hold of empiri- shifted the word, to denote an ulti- 

 cal laws which may be capable of be- ^mate law which it is supposed cannot 

 ing broken : we now have very much be broken. 



