226 Induction. [CHAP. ix. 



that annoying contingency to which prophets since the time 

 of Jonah have been subject, of uttering suicidal prophecies ; 

 of publishing conclusions which are perfectly certain when 

 every condition and cause but one have been taken into 

 account, that one being the effect of the prophecy itself 

 upon those to whom it refers. 



In our example above, the office (in so far as the parti 

 cular cases in Madeira are concerned) would get on very well 

 until the consumptive Englishmen in question found out 

 what much better terms they could make by announcing 

 themselves as consumptives, and paying the premium ap 

 propriate to that class, instead of announcing themselves as 

 Englishmen. But if they did this they would of course be 

 disturbing the statistics. The tables were based upon the 

 assumption that a certain fixed proportion (it does not 

 matter what proportion) of the English lives would continue 

 to be consumptive lives, which, under the supposed circum 

 stances, would probably soon cease to be true. When it is 

 said that nine Englishmen out of ten die in Madeira, it is 

 meant that of those who come to the office, as the phrase is, 

 at random, or in their fair proportions, nine-tenths die. The 

 consumptives are supposed to go there just like red-haired 

 men, or poets, or any other special class. Or they might go 

 in any proportions greater or less than those of other classes, 

 so long as they adhered to the same proportion throughout. 

 The tables are then calculated on the continuance of this 

 state of things; the practical contradiction is in supposing 

 such a state of things to continue after the people had once 

 had a look at the tables. If we merely make the assump 

 tion that the publication of these tables made no such altera 

 tion in the conduct of those to whom it referred, no hitch of 

 this kind need occur. 



26. The assumptions here made, as has been said, are 



