244 Chance, Causation, and Design. [CHAP. x. 



we not suppose him, in some moment of reflectiveness, being- 

 astonished and dismayed at the sudden realization of the 

 utter uncertainty in which the single life is involved ? And 

 might not his exclamation in turn be, Why this is denying 

 Providence ! It is utter chaos and chance ! A belief in a 

 Creator and Administrator of the world is not confined to 

 any particular assumption about the nature of the immediate 

 sequence of events, but those who have been accustomed 

 hitherto to regard the events under one of the aspects above 

 referred to, will often for a time feel at a loss how to connect 

 them with the other. 



9. So far we have been touching on a very general 

 question ; viz. the relation of the fundamental postulates of 

 Probability to the conception of Order or Uniformity in the 

 world, physical or moral. The difficulties which thence arise 

 are mainly theological, metaphysical or psychological. What 

 we must now consider are problems of a more detailed or 

 logical character. They are prominently these two ; (1) the 

 distinction between chance arrangement and causal arrange 

 ment in physical phenomena ; and (2) the distinction be 

 tween chance arrangement and designed arrangement where 

 we are supposed to be contemplating rational agency as. 

 acting on one side at least. 



II. The first of these questions raises the antithesis- 

 between chance and causation, not as a general characteristic 

 pervading all phenomena, but in reference to some specified 

 occurrence : Is this a case of chance or not ? The most 

 strenuous supporters of the universal prevalence of causation 

 and order admit that the question is a relevant one, and 

 they must therefore be supposed to have some rule for 

 testing the answers to it. 



Suppose, for instance, a man is seized with a fit in a 

 house where he has gone to dine, and dies there ; and some 



