256 Chance, Causation, and Design. [CHAP. x. 



18. Up to this point it will be observed that what we 

 have been balancing against each other are two forms of 

 agency, of human agency, that is, one acting through 

 chance, and the other by direct design. In this case we 

 know where we are, for we can thoroughly understand agency 

 of this kind. The problem is indeed but seldom numerically 

 soluble, and in most cases not soluble at all, but it is at any 

 rate capable of being clearly stated. We know the kind of 

 answer to be expected and the reasons which would serve to 

 determine it, if they were attainable. 



The next stage in the enquiry would be that of balancing 

 ordinary human chance agency against, I will not call it 

 direct spiritualist agency, for that would be narrowing the 

 hypothesis unnecessarily, but against all other possible 

 causes. Some of the investigations of the Society for 

 Psychical Research will furnish an admirable illustration of 

 what is intended by this statement. There is a full dis 

 cussion of these applications in a recent essay by Mr F. Y. 

 Edgeworth 1 ; but as his account of the matter is connected 

 with other calculations arid diagrams I can only quote it in 

 part. But I am in substantial agreement with him. 



&quot;It is recorded that 1833 guesses were made by a per 

 cipient as to the suit of cards which the agent had fixed 

 upon. The number of successful guesses was 510, consider 

 ably above 458, the number which, as being the quarter of 

 1833, would, on the supposition of pure chance, be more 

 likely than any other number. Now, by the Law of Error, 

 we are able approximately to determine the probability of 



number of successes, accounted for Feb. 11, 1837.) 



that of the actual gains), and that l Metretike. At the end of this 



large allowance must be made for volume will be found a useful list 



skill where the actual gains were of a number of other publications 



computed. (See the Times report, by the same author on allied topics. 



