SECT. 4.] Probability before and after the event. 281 



says, &quot; There is a very strong presumption against common 

 speculative truths, and against the most ordinary facts, be 

 fore the proof of them ; which yet is overcome by almost any 

 proof. There is a presumption of millions to one against the 

 story of Csesar, or of any other man. For, suppose a number 

 of common facts so and so circumstanced, of which one had 

 no kind of proof, should happen to come into one s thoughts, 

 every one would without any possible doubt conclude them 

 to be false. And the like may be said of a single common 

 fact.&quot; 



4. These remarks have been a good deal criticized, 

 and they certainly seem to me misleading and obscure in 

 their reference. If one may judge by the context, and by 

 another passage in which the same argument is afterwards 

 referred to 1 , it would certainly appear that Butler drew no 

 distinction between miraculous accounts, and other accounts 

 which, to use any of the various expressions in common use, 

 are unlikely or improbable or have a presumption against 

 them ; and concluded that since some of the latter were in 

 stantly accepted upon somewhat mediocre testimony, it was 

 altogether irrational to reject the former when similarly or 

 better supported 2 . This subject will come again under our 

 notice, and demand fuller discussion, in the chapter on the 

 Credibility of extraordinary stories. It will suffice here to 



1 &quot; Is it not self-evident that inter- to common natural events; or to 



nal improbabilities of all kinds weak- events which, though uncommon, 



en external proof? Doubtless, but are similar to what we daily expe- 



to what practical purpose can this be rience ; but to the extraordinary 



alleged here, when it has been proved phenomena of nature. And then 



before, that real internal improbabi- the comparison will be between the 



lities, which rise even to moral cer- presumption against miracles, and 



tainty, are overcome by the most the presumption against such un- 



ordinary testimony.&quot; Part II. ch. in. common appearances, suppose as 



- &quot; Miracles must not be compared comets,&quot; Part II. ch. n. 



