288 Probability before and after the event. [CHAP. xn. 



previous period a countless number of persons had met us, 

 and all fallen into the list of the unknown to us. There 

 was nothing to remind us of having formed the anticipa 

 tion or distinction at all, until it was suddenly called out 

 into vivid consciousness by the exceptional event. The 

 words which we should instinctively use in our surprise seem 

 to show this: Who would have thought of seeing you 

 here? viz. Who would have given any weight to the latent 

 thought if it had been called out into consciousness before 

 hand ? We put our words into the past tense, showing that 

 we have had the distinction lurking in our minds all the 

 time. We always have a multitude of such ready-made 

 classes of events in our minds, and when a thing happens to 

 fall into one of those classes which are very small we cannot 

 help noticing the fact. 



Or suppose I am one of a regiment into which a shot 

 flies, and it strikes me, and me only. At this I am sur 

 prised, and why ? Our common language will guide us to the 

 reason. How strange that it should just have hit me of all 

 men ! We are thinking of the very natural two-fold division 

 of mankind into, ourselves, and everybody else ; our surprise 

 is again, as it were, retrospective, and in reference to this 

 division. No anticipation was distinctly formed, because 

 we did not think beforehand of the event, but the event, 

 when it has happened, is at once assigned to its appropriate 



class. 



11. This view is confirmed by the following considera 

 tions. Tell the story to a friend, and he will be a little 

 surprised, but less so than we were, his division in this 

 particular case being, his friends (of whom we are but one), 

 and the rest of mankind. It is not a necessary division, but 

 it is the one which will be most likely suggested to him. 



Tell it again to a perfect stranger, and his division being 



