344 Fallacies. [CHAP. xiv. 



instance, instead of a shilling; and secondly, because what 

 he has done once he may do again. He may put his shilling 

 by, and have a second spell of play, long or short as the case 

 may be, with the same termination to it. Accordingly by 

 mere persistency he may accumulate any sum of money he 

 pleases, in apparent defiance of all that is meant by luck. 



13. I have classed this opinion among fallacies, as the 

 present is the most convenient opportunity of discussing it, 

 though in strictness it should rather be termed a paradox, 

 since the conclusion is perfectly sound. The only fallacy 

 consists in regarding such a way of obtaining the result as 

 mysterious. On the contrary, there is nothing more easy 

 than to insure ultimate success under the given conditions. 

 The point is worth enquiry, from the principles it involves, 

 and because the answers commonly given do not quite meet 

 the difficulty. It is sometimes urged, for instance, that no 

 bank would or does allow the speculator to choose at will the 

 amount of his stake, but puts a limit to the amount for 

 which it will consent to play. This is quite true, but is of 

 course no answer to the hypothetical enquiry before us, which 

 assumes that such a state of things is allowed. Again, it has 

 been urged that the possibility in question turns entirely 

 upon the fact that credit must be supposed to be given, for 

 otherwise the fortune of the player may not hold out until 

 his turn of luck arrives: that, in fact, sooner or later, if he 

 goes on long enough, his fortune will not hold out long 

 enough, and all his gains will be swept away. It is quite 

 true that credit is a condition of success, but it is in no sense 

 the cause. We may suppose both parties to agree at the 

 outset that there shall be no payments until the game be 

 ended, A having the right to decide when it shall be con 

 sidered to be ended. It still remains true that whereas in 

 ordinary gambling, i.e. with fixed or haphazard stakes, A 



