354 Fallacies. [CHAP. xiv. 



Now many people have not unnaturally thought it de 

 rogatory to genius to suggest that its productions could 

 have also been obtained by chance, whilst others have gone 

 on to argue, If this be the case, might not the world itself in 

 this manner have been produced by chance ? 



22. We will begin with the comparatively simple, de 

 terminate, and intelligible problem of the possible production 

 of the works of a great human genius by chance. With 

 regard to this possibility, it may be a consolation to some 

 timid minds to be reminded that the power of producing the 

 works of a Shakespeare, in time, is not confined to consum 

 mate genius and to mere chance. There is a third alterna 

 tive, viz. that of purely mechanical procedure. Any one, 

 down almost to an idiot, might do it, if he took sufficient 

 time about the task. For suppose that the required number 

 of letters were procured and arranged, not by chance, but 

 designedly, and according to rules suggested by the theory 

 of permutations : the letters of the alphabet and the number 

 of them to be employed being finite, every order in which 

 they could occur would come in its due turn, and therefore 

 every thing which can be expressed in language would be 

 arrived at some time or other. 



There is really nothing that need shock any one in such 

 a result. Its possibility arises from the following cause. 



to 1 in favour of success, this also shown algebraically to be equivalent 

 can be easily shown. If the chance to odds of about 2 to 1. That is, 



1 when we have drawn the requisite 

 of an event on each occasion is - , . , J . , . 



n quantity of letters a number of times 



the chance of getting it once at least equal to the inconceivably great 

 n 1\ H number above represented, it is still 



in n trials is l-(^ J \ for we on i y 2 to 1 that we shall have se- 



shall do this unless we fail n times cured what we want: and then we 



running. When (as in the case in have to recognize it. 

 question) n is very large, this may be 



